Points Off/Def
Raw points regression with separate offensive and defensive team parameters.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | PtsOD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Model of the form points_i = intercept + off_i + def_j + beta_home. This is the two-parameter team baseline without pace adjustment.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.877 (#4) · 831 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.507 (#5) · 5 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.471 (#4) · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 1 · 78.2% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAM 2025-2026. The focus line is Points Off/Def. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 - Apr 6 | 0.507 | #5/16 | Adjusted Context Blend (0.463) |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.597 | #4/16 | Log Adjusted (0.591) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.465 | #4/16 | Adjusted Efficiency (0.427) |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.552 | #2/16 | Margin (0.550) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.466 | #2/16 | Adjusted Context Blend (0.453) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.601 | #2/16 | Points Off/Def Recency (0.592) |
| Feb 18 - Feb 24 | 0.609 | #2/16 | Points Off/Def Recency (0.609) |
| Feb 11 - Feb 17 | 0.517 | #1 | Points Off/Def |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAM 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 0.878 | #3 | 0.494 | #4 | 0.458 | #1 | 22 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | - | - | 0.463 | #1 | 0.464 | #2 | 22 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.568 | #6 | 0.465 | #3 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.877 | #4 | 0.507 | #5 | 0.471 | #4 | 22 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.606 | #9 | 0.472 | #5 | 22 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.880 | #1 | 0.493 | #3 | 0.472 | #6 | 22 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.880 | #2 | 0.490 | #2 | 0.473 | #7 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.629 | #10 | 0.476 | #8 | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Points Off/Def. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.943 | #2 | 0.511 | #7 | 0.383 | #8 | 22 | 4 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.877 | #4 | 0.507 | #5 | 0.471 | #4 | 22 | 1 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 763 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 763 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 772 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 772 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 797 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 797 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 770 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 770 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 28 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |