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Model Card

Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play. Sequential Elo-style update model on team points per 100 possessions. Positive values mean a player's minutes tend to lift their own team's scoring rate.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Points Box Elo (offense) against any counting stat (one point per player; choose any season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the Box Elo forms.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).