Team model
Margin Recency
Margin regression with exponential recency weights on newer games.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | MargR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | margin | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Same linear margin model as Margin, but trained with exponentially decayed sample weights so recent games matter more.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2026 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 730 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 697 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 592 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 781 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 603 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 654 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 593 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 37 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |