Team model
Margin
Linear team-strength model fit on point differential instead of binary wins.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | margin | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Margin model of the form margin_ij = eta_i - eta_j + beta_home. It is the linear paired-comparison baseline for scoring margin targets.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.878 (#1) · 5048 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.588 (#7) · 14 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.517 (#4) · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 1 · 74.1% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAW 2025-2026. The focus line is Margin. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 - Apr 5 | 0.759 | #11/16 | Elo (0.673) |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.512 | #4/16 | Adjusted Context Blend (0.474) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.442 | #3/16 | Adjusted Efficiency (0.431) |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.611 | #2/16 | Margin Recency (0.603) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.508 | #4/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.500) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.492 | #5/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.484) |
| Feb 18 - Feb 24 | 0.522 | #4/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.515) |
| Feb 11 - Feb 17 | 0.494 | #4/16 | Core Ensemble (0.485) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAW 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.573 | #4 | 0.499 | #1 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.566 | #3 | 0.500 | #2 | 22 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.539 | #1 | 0.515 | #3 | 22 |
| Margin | 0.878 | #1 | 0.588 | #7 | 0.517 | #4 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.870 | #5 | 0.578 | #5 | 0.542 | #5 | 22 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | - | - | 0.631 | #12 | 0.543 | #6 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | - | - | 0.539 | #2 | 0.551 | #7 | 22 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | - | - | 0.603 | #9 | 0.555 | #8 | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Margin. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.720 | #14 | 0.653 | #12 | 21 | 1 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.954 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.849 | #3 | 0.492 | #5 | 0.538 | #4 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.878 | #1 | 0.588 | #7 | 0.517 | #4 | 22 | 1 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.923 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.802 | #3 | 0.535 | #4 | 0.541 | #3 | 14 | 6 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.822 | #2 | 0.577 | #4 | 0.548 | #1 | 22 | 4 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.829 | #5 | 0.595 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.743 | #6 | 0.598 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.732 | #6 | 0.606 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.755 | #5 | 0.614 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.725 | #3 | 0.614 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.699 | #3 | 0.612 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.788 | #5 | 0.611 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.723 | #6 | 0.611 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.750 | #3 | 0.613 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.689 | #5 | 0.614 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.759 | #5 | 0.614 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.685 | #5 | 0.614 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.682 | #5 | 0.619 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.710 | #5 | 0.625 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.671 | #5 | 0.630 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.657 | #3 | 0.632 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.672 | #3 | 0.635 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.668 | #3 | 0.635 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.614 | #4 | 0.634 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.655 | #5 | 0.635 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.645 | #5 | 0.637 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.648 | #5 | 0.637 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.746 | #8 | 0.589 | #9 | 0.620 | #8 | 26 | 2 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.474 | #10 | 0.692 | #5 | 0.673 | #8 | 22 | 0 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| WNBA | 2024 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2023-2024 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2023 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2022 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2021 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2020 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2019 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2018 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2017 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2016 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2015 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2013 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2012 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2010 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2009 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2005 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2003 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2001 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2000 | 16 |
| WNBA | 1999 | 12 |
| WNBA | 1998 | 10 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 8 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 436 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 439 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2023-2024 | 443 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2022-2023 | 443 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2021-2022 | 443 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2020-2021 | 443 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2019-2020 | 530 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2018-2019 | 535 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2017-2018 | 113 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2016-2017 | 548 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2015-2016 | 542 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2014-2015 | 531 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2013-2014 | 465 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2012-2013 | 440 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 305 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 310 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2023-2024 | 314 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2022-2023 | 314 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2021-2022 | 314 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2020-2021 | 314 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2019-2020 | 467 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2018-2019 | 476 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2017-2018 | 159 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2016-2017 | 503 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2015-2016 | 511 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2014-2015 | 495 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2013-2014 | 426 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2012-2013 | 388 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 602 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 602 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 602 |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 605 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 461 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 504 |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 527 |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 553 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 623 |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 625 |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 631 |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 645 |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2003-2004 | 668 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 429 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 431 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2023-2024 | 437 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2022-2023 | 437 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2021-2022 | 437 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2020-2021 | 437 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2019-2020 | 574 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2018-2019 | 565 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2017-2018 | 215 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2016-2017 | 594 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2015-2016 | 576 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2014-2015 | 571 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2013-2014 | 503 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2012-2013 | 502 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 324 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 323 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2023-2024 | 328 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2022-2023 | 328 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2021-2022 | 328 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2020-2021 | 328 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2019-2020 | 515 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2018-2019 | 529 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2017-2018 | 186 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2016-2017 | 541 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2015-2016 | 535 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2014-2015 | 528 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2013-2014 | 438 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2012-2013 | 412 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 611 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 711 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 1008 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 1012 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 1020 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 1033 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 1040 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 1043 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 1059 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 1068 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 1072 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 1131 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 1165 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 1188 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 1145 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 1156 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 1163 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 1173 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 1182 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 1191 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 1196 |
| NCAAM | 2002-2003 | 328 |
| NCAAM | 2001-2002 | 324 |
| NCAAM | 2000-2001 | 319 |
| NCAAM | 1999-2000 | 319 |
| NCAAM | 1998-1999 | 311 |
| NCAAM | 1997-1998 | 308 |
| NCAAM | 1996-1997 | 307 |
| NCAAM | 1995-1996 | 306 |
| NCAAM | 1994-1995 | 303 |
| NCAAM | 1993-1994 | 302 |
| NCAAM | 1992-1993 | 299 |
| NCAAM | 1991-1992 | 299 |
| NCAAM | 1990-1991 | 296 |
| NCAAM | 1989-1990 | 293 |
| NCAAM | 1988-1989 | 294 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 28 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 30 |
| NBA | 2017-2018 | 30 |
| NBA | 2016-2017 | 30 |
| NBA | 2015-2016 | 30 |
| NBA | 2014-2015 | 30 |
| NBA | 2013-2014 | 30 |
| NBA | 2012-2013 | 30 |
| NBA | 2011-2012 | 30 |
| NBA | 2010-2011 | 30 |
| NBA | 2009-2010 | 30 |
| NBA | 2008-2009 | 30 |
| NBA | 2007-2008 | 30 |
| NBA | 2006-2007 | 30 |
| NBA | 2005-2006 | 30 |
| NBA | 2004-2005 | 30 |
| NBA | 2003-2004 | 30 |
| NBA | 2002-2003 | 29 |
| NBA | 2001-2002 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1999-2000 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 25 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 21 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 13 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 11 |
| GLEAGUE | 2006-2007 | 7 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 3 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 17 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 26 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 28 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 31 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 36 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 42 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 33 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |