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Team model

Adjusted Context Blend

Experimental context-heavy win model blending strong team components with rest and venue context.

Status implemented Short Name Adj+
Rating Style probability Where Shown model performance

Model Card

Context-heavy second-stage win model that blends our strongest component ratings with rest and venue context. This remains an exploratory team baseline: useful in the bakeoff and model pages, but not yet clean enough for the main public team-output surfaces.

Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

Full-season AUC 0.844 (#7 of 16) · 3312 games
Full-season log loss 0.507
Final-week AUC 0.875 (#3) · 10 games

Peers in NCAAWD2 2025-2026

Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.

Model AUC Rank LogLoss AUC final wk Final wk rank
Margin Recency 0.857 #1 0.477 0.708 #15
Points Off/Def 0.857 #2 0.485 0.875 #3
Margin 0.857 #3 0.477 0.833 #7
Points Off/Def Recency 0.855 #4 0.491 0.833 #7
Core Ensemble 0.851 #5 0.480 0.875 #3
Recency Ensemble 0.851 #6 0.480 0.833 #7
Adjusted Context Blend 0.844 #7 0.507 0.875 #3
Adjusted Efficiency 0.844 #8 0.527 0.917 #1
Log Adjusted 0.844 #9 0.529 0.917 #1
Dynamic Bradley-Terry 0.818 #10 0.521 0.875 #3
Avg Margin Baseline 0.817 #11 0.523 0.833 #7
Bradley-Terry 0.813 #12 0.528 0.833 #7
Bradley-Terry Recency 0.812 #13 0.541 0.792 #13
Pythagorean 0.808 #14 0.538 0.750 #14
Elo 0.788 #15 0.551 0.833 #7
Home Team Baseline 0.579 #16 0.682 0.667 #16

League × Season Summary

Adjusted Context Blend in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.

League Season AUC Rank LogLoss Games AUC final wk
WNBA 2026 0.751 #14/17 0.591 292 1.000
WNBA 2025 0.694 #8/17 0.661 260 -
WNBA 2024 0.749 #9/17 0.618 198 0.750
WNBA 2023 0.738 #9/17 0.607 207 0.500
WNBA 2022 0.656 #13/17 0.651 189 0.750
WNBA 2021 0.704 #4/17 0.628 159 1.000
WNBA 2020 0.723 #8/17 0.626 81 -
WNBA 2019 0.680 #9/17 0.646 180 0.750
WNBA 2018 0.643 #9/16 0.677 166 -
WNBA 2017 0.714 #5/17 0.626 174 0.750
WNBA 2016 0.669 #8/16 0.678 171 0.250
WNBA 2015 0.635 #7/16 0.702 169 0.750
WNBA 2014 0.644 #7/17 0.662 179 -
WNBA 2013 0.684 #5/17 0.649 194 -
WNBA 2012 0.710 #6/17 0.627 179 1.000
WNBA 2011 0.769 #5/17 0.574 183 -
WNBA 2010 0.731 #5/17 0.632 171 -
WNBA 2009 0.641 #3/17 0.683 196 0.750
WNBA 2008 0.679 #5/17 0.694 208 0.333
WNBA 2007 0.565 #12/17 0.734 194 0.250
WNBA 2006 0.732 #2/17 0.607 205 0.750
WNBA 2005 0.731 #5/16 0.617 186 0.833
WNBA 2004 0.597 #7/17 0.693 199 1.000
WNBA 2003 0.668 #3/16 0.687 200 1.000
WNBA 2002 0.677 #4/17 0.675 211 1.000
WNBA 2001 0.724 #8/16 0.620 194 0.917
WNBA 2000 0.799 #5/16 0.543 181 1.000
WNBA 1999 0.682 #6/16 0.665 138 0.583
WNBA 1998 0.816 #1/16 0.532 106 0.850
WNBA 1997 0.574 #14/17 0.742 78 0.667
NCAAWD3 2025-2026 0.882 #7/16 0.444 3493 0.667
NCAAWD3 2024-2025 0.893 #9/16 0.426 4184 0.750
NCAAWD3 2023-2024 0.896 #9/16 0.419 3953 -
NCAAWD3 2022-2023 0.888 #9/16 0.438 3019 0.667
NCAAWD3 2021-2022 0.868 #8/16 0.478 2331 1.000
NCAAWD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 0.979
NCAAWD3 2019-2020 0.873 #9/16 0.467 2955 0.840
NCAAWD3 2018-2019 0.858 #9/16 0.494 2659 0.700
NCAAWD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD3 2016-2017 0.863 #9/16 0.478 2423 -
NCAAWD3 2015-2016 0.853 #9/16 0.509 1888 -
NCAAWD3 2014-2015 0.855 #7/16 0.500 1325 -
NCAAWD3 2013-2014 0.865 #6/16 0.476 2193 0.333
NCAAWD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2025-2026 0.844 #7/16 0.507 3312 0.875
NCAAWD2 2024-2025 0.828 #9/16 0.529 3553 0.867
NCAAWD2 2023-2024 0.823 #7/16 0.540 3482 0.833
NCAAWD2 2022-2023 0.822 #7/16 0.541 3336 -
NCAAWD2 2021-2022 0.817 #8/16 0.560 2624 0.500
NCAAWD2 2020-2021 0.800 #9/16 0.587 1499 -
NCAAWD2 2019-2020 0.839 #9/16 0.513 3154 0.810
NCAAWD2 2018-2019 0.833 #9/16 0.522 3137 0.917
NCAAWD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2016-2017 0.818 #9/16 0.552 3208 0.900
NCAAWD2 2015-2016 0.795 #7/16 0.597 1815 -
NCAAWD2 2014-2015 0.794 #7/16 0.597 1508 -
NCAAWD2 2013-2014 - - - 0 0.667
NCAAWD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 0.000
NCAAW 2025-2026 0.836 #9/17 0.520 4742 0.771
NCAAW 2024-2025 0.840 #9/17 0.513 4691 0.796
NCAAW 2023-2024 0.831 #7/17 0.528 4590 0.556
NCAAW 2022-2023 0.827 #8/17 0.530 4508 0.800
NCAAW 2021-2022 0.827 #7/16 0.530 3927 0.750
NCAAW 2020-2021 0.809 #9/16 0.560 2838 0.833
NCAAW 2019-2020 0.820 #7/16 0.544 4254 0.844
NCAAW 2018-2019 0.838 #9/16 0.515 4209 0.850
NCAAW 2017-2018 0.847 #7/16 0.499 4136 0.429
NCAAW 2016-2017 0.838 #5/16 0.514 4117 0.867
NCAAW 2015-2016 0.841 #7/16 0.511 4093 1.000
NCAAW 2014-2015 0.837 #7/16 0.509 4106 0.750
NCAAW 2013-2014 0.825 #7/16 0.530 4268 1.000
NCAAW 2012-2013 0.820 #9/16 0.542 4046 0.500
NCAAW 2011-2012 0.832 #7/16 0.523 3942 1.000
NCAAW 2010-2011 0.838 #7/16 0.511 4019 0.500
NCAAW 2009-2010 0.828 #5/16 0.523 4042 -
NCAAW 2008-2009 0.831 #7/16 0.519 3969 1.000
NCAAW 2007-2008 0.836 #7/16 0.516 4036 0.500
NCAAW 2006-2007 0.840 #6/16 0.510 3823 0.625
NCAAW 2005-2006 0.828 #7/16 0.539 4126 -
NCAAW 2004-2005 0.835 #5/16 0.519 3807 0.333
NCAAMD3 2025-2026 0.816 #9/16 0.551 3977 -
NCAAMD3 2024-2025 0.796 #9/16 0.579 3998 -
NCAAMD3 2023-2024 0.809 #7/16 0.559 4141 0.500
NCAAMD3 2022-2023 0.806 #9/16 0.561 3688 1.000
NCAAMD3 2021-2022 0.806 #9/16 0.568 3282 -
NCAAMD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD3 2019-2020 0.791 #7/16 0.584 3910 0.771
NCAAMD3 2018-2019 0.801 #9/16 0.567 3741 0.500
NCAAMD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD3 2016-2017 0.781 #7/16 0.589 3460 -
NCAAMD3 2015-2016 0.760 #7/16 0.641 2779 -
NCAAMD3 2014-2015 0.783 #9/16 0.604 2420 1.000
NCAAMD3 2013-2014 0.808 #9/16 0.559 3043 1.000
NCAAMD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD2 2025-2026 0.790 #7/16 0.584 3618 -
NCAAMD2 2024-2025 0.757 #9/16 0.631 3783 0.800
NCAAMD2 2023-2024 0.786 #7/16 0.578 3570 1.000
NCAAMD2 2022-2023 0.776 #7/16 0.599 3518 1.000
NCAAMD2 2021-2022 0.778 #9/16 0.606 2886 0.667
NCAAMD2 2020-2021 0.741 #5/16 0.647 1531 0.867
NCAAMD2 2019-2020 0.777 #7/16 0.594 3557 0.822
NCAAMD2 2018-2019 0.785 #7/16 0.584 3572 0.750
NCAAMD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD2 2016-2017 0.785 #9/16 0.589 3475 1.000
NCAAMD2 2015-2016 0.750 #7/16 0.650 3264 1.000
NCAAMD2 2014-2015 0.776 #7/16 0.600 1991 0.167
NCAAMD2 2013-2014 0.766 #6/16 0.642 1496 0.800
NCAAMD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAM 2025-2026 0.766 #8/17 0.609 4785 0.857
NCAAM 2024-2025 0.774 #8/16 0.594 4786 0.500
NCAAM 2023-2024 0.765 #6/16 0.606 4710 1.000
NCAAM 2022-2023 0.762 #6/17 0.608 4632 1.000
NCAAM 2021-2022 0.781 #8/16 0.587 4445 0.700
NCAAM 2020-2021 0.739 #10/16 0.644 3016 0.667
NCAAM 2019-2020 0.772 #6/16 0.595 4300 0.732
NCAAM 2018-2019 0.784 #6/16 0.586 4657 0.839
NCAAM 2017-2018 0.786 #6/16 0.579 4294 0.600
NCAAM 2016-2017 0.784 #6/16 0.580 4269 0.875
NCAAM 2015-2016 0.786 #6/16 0.581 4277 0.800
NCAAM 2014-2015 0.782 #6/16 0.586 4263 0.548
NCAAM 2013-2014 0.783 #6/16 0.586 4368 0.653
NCAAM 2012-2013 0.796 #6/16 0.564 4337 1.000
NCAAM 2011-2012 0.807 #6/16 0.558 4132 0.950
NCAAM 2010-2011 0.790 #6/16 0.578 4073 0.600
NCAAM 2009-2010 0.810 #6/16 0.553 4426 0.812
NCAAM 2008-2009 0.787 #6/16 0.582 4483 0.639
NCAAM 2007-2008 0.795 #6/16 0.572 4478 0.750
NCAAM 2006-2007 0.794 #6/16 0.577 4342 0.750
NCAAM 2005-2006 0.789 #6/16 0.588 4309 0.778
NCAAM 2004-2005 0.797 #5/16 0.573 3964 0.778
NCAAM 2003-2004 0.803 #6/16 0.564 3911 0.200
NCAAM 2002-2003 0.794 #6/16 0.572 3929 0.500
NCAAM 2001-2002 0.790 #6/16 0.582 3897 0.583
NCAAM 2000-2001 0.800 #6/16 0.570 3825 0.917
NCAAM 1999-2000 0.799 #6/16 0.566 3840 0.917
NCAAM 1998-1999 0.784 #8/16 0.594 3712 0.500
NCAAM 1997-1998 0.798 #6/16 0.575 3735 0.667
NCAAM 1996-1997 0.796 #6/16 0.576 3600 0.333
NCAAM 1995-1996 0.790 #6/16 0.580 3534 0.583
NCAAM 1994-1995 0.794 #8/16 0.580 3501 0.500
NCAAM 1993-1994 0.805 #6/16 0.567 3517 1.000
NCAAM 1992-1993 0.802 #6/16 0.575 3539 0.000
NCAAM 1991-1992 0.807 #6/16 0.560 3587 0.667
NCAAM 1990-1991 0.800 #6/16 0.569 3470 0.500
NCAAM 1989-1990 0.814 #6/16 0.548 3426 -
NCAAM 1988-1989 0.810 #5/16 0.551 3423 0.500
NBA 2025-2026 0.729 #11/16 0.616 1134 0.250
NBA 2024-2025 0.706 #10/16 0.627 1118 1.000
NBA 2023-2024 0.713 #3/16 0.622 1172 0.750
NBA 2022-2023 0.662 #4/16 0.664 1162 -
NBA 2021-2022 0.683 #13/17 0.655 1150 -
NBA 2020-2021 0.680 #11/16 0.641 1012 -
NBA 2019-2020 0.688 #3/17 0.642 955 0.000
NBA 2018-2019 0.704 #5/17 0.640 1146 0.000
NBA 2017-2018 0.718 #1/16 0.622 1136 -
NBA 2016-2017 0.687 #5/16 0.642 1157 0.750
NBA 2015-2016 0.750 #5/16 0.590 1115 -
NBA 2014-2015 0.737 #5/16 0.607 1153 -
NBA 2013-2014 0.717 #7/16 0.624 1118 -
NBA 2012-2013 0.739 #5/16 0.606 1145 1.000
NBA 2011-2012 0.706 #5/16 0.630 859 -
NBA 2010-2011 0.754 #5/16 0.593 1118 -
NBA 2009-2010 0.735 #5/16 0.614 1140 1.000
NBA 2008-2009 0.770 #5/16 0.576 1118 0.500
NBA 2007-2008 0.750 #5/16 0.595 1160 0.750
NBA 2006-2007 0.689 #3/16 0.640 1139 -
NBA 2005-2006 0.693 #5/16 0.640 1164 -
NBA 2004-2005 0.729 #3/16 0.613 1144 0.250
NBA 2003-2004 0.729 #5/16 0.611 1120 -
NBA 2002-2003 0.724 #5/16 0.616 1084 0.750
NBA 2001-2002 0.696 #3/16 0.643 1096 -
NBA 2000-2001 0.727 #5/16 0.608 1069 -
NBA 1999-2000 0.741 #3/16 0.600 1090 0.750
NBA 1998-1999 0.738 #5/16 0.610 621 0.500
NBA 1997-1998 0.794 #5/16 0.553 1087 0.250
NBA 1996-1997 0.776 #1/16 0.574 1104 0.750
GLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.627 #11/17 0.698 452 0.333
GLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.601 #13/16 0.699 393 0.750
GLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.586 #12/17 0.713 378 0.750
GLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.637 #12/17 0.689 352 0.250
GLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.614 #12/17 0.709 348 -
GLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.542 #15/17 0.804 18 0.542
GLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.595 #16/17 0.740 459 0.498
GLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.624 #6/17 0.692 583 0.750
GLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.562 #14/17 0.726 510 0.667
GLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.655 #12/17 0.686 487 1.000
GLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.660 #12/17 0.670 430 0.250
GLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.680 #9/17 0.649 394 1.000
GLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.616 #8/17 0.699 372 0.500
GLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.661 #5/17 0.666 350 -
GLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.632 #7/17 0.686 346 0.333
GLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.715 #5/17 0.635 352 0.250
GLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.697 #12/17 0.633 344 0.500
GLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.600 #15/17 0.728 337 1.000
GLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.742 #4/17 0.611 299 1.000
GLEAGUE 2006-2007 0.782 #8/16 0.571 252 -
GLEAGUE 2005-2006 0.786 #3/17 0.556 165 -
GLEAGUE 2004-2005 0.909 #7/16 0.400 119 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2026-2027 0.701 #12/17 0.731 41 0.786
EUROLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.687 #4/17 0.650 342 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.660 #6/17 0.662 285 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.719 #6/17 0.633 287 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.635 #6/17 0.694 283 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.665 #5/17 0.697 254 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.657 #5/17 0.690 290 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.724 #6/17 0.628 216 0.821
EUROLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.767 #6/17 0.588 220 -
EUROLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.684 #5/17 0.665 220 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.694 #6/17 0.666 219 0.667
EUROLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.709 #5/17 0.641 202 0.750
EUROLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.768 #1/17 0.590 203 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.764 #5/17 0.605 205 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.746 #1/17 0.624 205 -
EUROLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.769 #7/17 0.595 152 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.697 #5/17 0.677 153 0.750
EUROLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.746 #5/17 0.625 152 -
EUROLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.742 #5/17 0.615 152 0.667
EUROLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.775 #5/17 0.588 195 0.333
EUROCUP 2026-2027 0.702 #11/17 0.667 31 0.429
EUROCUP 2025-2026 0.703 #12/17 0.663 161 -
EUROCUP 2024-2025 0.695 #11/17 0.699 156 -
EUROCUP 2023-2024 0.750 #4/17 0.649 156 -
EUROCUP 2022-2023 0.739 #3/17 0.611 155 -
EUROCUP 2021-2022 0.697 #6/17 0.661 149 -
EUROCUP 2020-2021 0.730 #1/17 0.639 140 -
EUROCUP 2019-2020 0.610 #6/17 0.750 120 0.867
EUROCUP 2018-2019 0.797 #2/17 0.553 150 1.000
EUROCUP 2017-2018 0.742 #11/17 0.611 136 -
EUROCUP 2016-2017 0.741 #8/17 0.627 114 -
EUROCUP 2015-2016 0.661 #12/17 0.726 226 1.000
EUROCUP 2014-2015 0.702 #3/17 0.691 226 -
EUROCUP 2013-2014 0.708 #2/17 0.679 262 -
EUROCUP 2012-2013 0.534 #10/17 0.916 93 -
EUROCUP 2011-2012 0.760 #3/17 0.595 92 1.000
EUROCUP 2010-2011 0.682 #4/17 0.686 93 0.000
EUROCUP 2009-2010 0.669 #2/17 0.751 92 1.000
EUROCUP 2008-2009 0.715 #5/17 0.688 102 0.500
EUROCUP 2007-2008 0.792 #4/17 0.581 245 0.875