Adjusted Context Blend
Experimental context-heavy win model blending strong team components with rest and venue context.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Adj+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
Context-heavy second-stage win model that blends our strongest component ratings with rest and venue context. This remains an exploratory team baseline: useful in the bakeoff and model pages, but not yet clean enough for the main public team-output surfaces.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | - · 0 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.485 (#3) · 290 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.626 (#10) · 14 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 67.5% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAWD2 2025-2026. The focus line is Adjusted Context Blend. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 14 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 - Feb 8 | 0.498 | #4/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.495) |
| Jan 28 - Feb 3 | 0.487 | #7/16 | Margin Recency (0.477) |
| Jan 21 - Jan 27 | 0.496 | #7/16 | Margin Recency (0.476) |
| Jan 14 - Jan 20 | 0.499 | #4/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.487) |
| Jan 7 - Jan 13 | 0.496 | #7/16 | Core Ensemble (0.462) |
| Dec 31 - Jan 6 | 0.648 | #12/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.576) |
| Dec 24 - Dec 30 | 0.105 | #7/16 | Log Adjusted (0.055) |
| Dec 17 - Dec 23 | 0.571 | #7/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.514) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAWD2 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.484 | #1 | 0.530 | #1 | 14 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.484 | #2 | 0.530 | #2 | 14 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.487 | #4 | 0.532 | #3 | 14 |
| Margin | 0.848 | #3 | 0.492 | #5 | 0.538 | #4 | 14 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.851 | #2 | 0.535 | #12 | 0.562 | #5 | 14 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | - | - | 0.485 | #3 | 0.626 | #10 | 14 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Adjusted Context Blend. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.590 | #7 | 0.635 | #8 | 21 | 1 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.485 | #3 | 0.626 | #10 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.631 | #12 | 0.543 | #6 | 22 | 1 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.534 | #3 | 0.599 | #11 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.543 | #3 | 0.594 | #9 | 22 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.568 | #1 | 0.627 | #14 | 26 | 3 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.793 | #10 | 0.707 | #16 | 22 | 0 |