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Team model

Adjusted Context Blend

Experimental context-heavy win model blending strong team components with rest and venue context.

Model Performance Catalog Entry
Status implemented Short Name Adj+
Rating Style probability Where Shown model performance

Model Card

Context-heavy second-stage win model that blends our strongest component ratings with rest and venue context. This remains an exploratory team baseline: useful in the bakeoff and model pages, but not yet clean enough for the main public team-output surfaces.

Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.