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Team model

Home Team Baseline

Always favor the home team with a fixed prior.

Status implemented Short Name Home
Rating Style probability Where Shown model performance

Model Card

Intentional dumb baseline. Useful only to ensure richer models beat a naive home-court rule.

Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

Full-season AUC 0.633 (#16 of 16) · 3501 games
Full-season log loss 0.662
Final-week AUC 0.500 (#4) · 5 games

Peers in NCAAM 1994-1995

Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.

Model AUC Rank LogLoss AUC final wk Final wk rank
Points Off/Def 0.809 #1 0.538 0.250 #10
Margin 0.807 #2 0.536 0.250 #10
Margin Recency 0.806 #3 0.537 0.250 #10
Elo 0.806 #4 0.532 0.250 #10
Points Off/Def Recency 0.806 #5 0.542 0.000 #16
Core Ensemble 0.795 #6 0.545 0.500 #4
Recency Ensemble 0.794 #7 0.546 0.500 #4
Adjusted Context Blend 0.794 #8 0.580 0.500 #4
Log Adjusted 0.779 #9 0.589 0.250 #10
Adjusted Efficiency 0.779 #10 0.588 0.250 #10
Dynamic Bradley-Terry 0.757 #11 0.583 1.000 #1
Avg Margin Baseline 0.752 #12 0.587 0.500 #4
Bradley-Terry 0.748 #13 0.590 0.750 #2
Pythagorean 0.747 #14 0.598 0.500 #4
Bradley-Terry Recency 0.744 #15 0.596 0.750 #2
Home Team Baseline 0.633 #16 0.662 0.500 #4

League × Season Summary

Home Team Baseline in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.

League Season AUC Rank LogLoss Games AUC final wk
WNBA 2026 0.584 #17/17 0.680 292 1.000
WNBA 2025 0.565 #17/17 0.687 260 -
WNBA 2024 0.546 #17/17 0.695 198 0.750
WNBA 2023 0.543 #17/17 0.697 207 0.500
WNBA 2022 0.545 #17/17 0.697 189 0.750
WNBA 2021 0.555 #17/17 0.692 159 1.000
WNBA 2020 0.404 #17/17 0.751 81 -
WNBA 2019 0.609 #17/17 0.669 180 0.750
WNBA 2018 0.568 #16/16 0.687 166 -
WNBA 2017 0.600 #17/17 0.674 174 0.750
WNBA 2016 0.580 #16/16 0.682 171 0.250
WNBA 2015 0.642 #6/16 0.657 169 0.750
WNBA 2014 0.571 #17/17 0.685 179 -
WNBA 2013 0.584 #17/17 0.680 194 -
WNBA 2012 0.590 #17/17 0.681 179 1.000
WNBA 2011 0.634 #17/17 0.659 183 -
WNBA 2010 0.591 #17/17 0.677 171 -
WNBA 2009 0.633 #6/17 0.660 196 0.750
WNBA 2008 0.630 #9/17 0.661 208 0.667
WNBA 2007 0.567 #9/17 0.688 194 0.250
WNBA 2006 0.612 #17/17 0.669 205 0.750
WNBA 2005 0.635 #16/16 0.659 186 0.833
WNBA 2004 0.640 #2/17 0.658 199 1.000
WNBA 2003 0.635 #7/16 0.659 200 1.000
WNBA 2002 0.611 #13/17 0.668 211 0.750
WNBA 2001 0.618 #16/16 0.665 194 0.500
WNBA 2000 0.652 #16/16 0.654 181 0.667
WNBA 1999 0.644 #12/16 0.655 138 0.583
WNBA 1998 0.582 #16/16 0.679 106 0.583
WNBA 1997 0.643 #6/17 0.656 78 0.708
NCAAWD3 2025-2026 0.575 #16/16 0.683 3493 0.417
NCAAWD3 2024-2025 0.565 #16/16 0.687 4184 0.500
NCAAWD3 2023-2024 0.567 #16/16 0.687 3953 0.875
NCAAWD3 2022-2023 0.560 #16/16 0.689 3019 0.433
NCAAWD3 2021-2022 0.551 #16/16 0.693 2331 0.500
NCAAWD3 2020-2021 0.567 #1/1 0.686 717 0.583
NCAAWD3 2019-2020 0.567 #16/16 0.686 2955 0.693
NCAAWD3 2018-2019 0.553 #16/16 0.692 2659 0.000
NCAAWD3 2017-2018 0.777 #1/1 0.596 43 -
NCAAWD3 2016-2017 0.553 #16/16 0.692 2423 -
NCAAWD3 2015-2016 0.558 #16/16 0.690 1888 -
NCAAWD3 2014-2015 0.570 #16/16 0.685 1325 -
NCAAWD3 2013-2014 0.574 #16/16 0.684 2193 0.667
NCAAWD3 2012-2013 0.608 #1/1 0.663 48 -
NCAAWD2 2025-2026 0.579 #16/16 0.682 3312 0.667
NCAAWD2 2024-2025 0.583 #16/16 0.680 3553 0.900
NCAAWD2 2023-2024 0.581 #16/16 0.681 3482 0.542
NCAAWD2 2022-2023 0.587 #16/16 0.678 3336 -
NCAAWD2 2021-2022 0.569 #16/16 0.686 2624 0.550
NCAAWD2 2020-2021 0.562 #16/16 0.689 1499 0.667
NCAAWD2 2019-2020 0.576 #16/16 0.683 3154 0.695
NCAAWD2 2018-2019 0.576 #16/16 0.683 3137 0.625
NCAAWD2 2017-2018 0.659 #1/1 0.657 50 -
NCAAWD2 2016-2017 0.569 #16/16 0.686 3208 0.800
NCAAWD2 2015-2016 0.566 #16/16 0.687 1815 -
NCAAWD2 2014-2015 0.585 #16/16 0.679 1508 -
NCAAWD2 2013-2014 0.580 #1/1 0.681 1237 0.333
NCAAWD2 2012-2013 0.575 #1/1 0.680 122 0.167
NCAAW 2025-2026 0.582 #17/17 0.680 4742 0.667
NCAAW 2024-2025 0.592 #17/17 0.676 4691 0.571
NCAAW 2023-2024 0.599 #17/17 0.674 4590 0.444
NCAAW 2022-2023 0.604 #17/17 0.671 4508 0.550
NCAAW 2021-2022 0.583 #16/16 0.680 3927 0.542
NCAAW 2020-2021 0.567 #16/16 0.686 2838 0.875
NCAAW 2019-2020 0.591 #16/16 0.677 4254 0.697
NCAAW 2018-2019 0.596 #16/16 0.675 4209 0.875
NCAAW 2017-2018 0.601 #16/16 0.673 4136 0.536
NCAAW 2016-2017 0.610 #16/16 0.669 4117 0.900
NCAAW 2015-2016 0.600 #16/16 0.673 4093 1.000
NCAAW 2014-2015 0.614 #16/16 0.667 4106 0.625
NCAAW 2013-2014 0.608 #16/16 0.670 4268 0.667
NCAAW 2012-2013 0.595 #16/16 0.675 4046 0.250
NCAAW 2011-2012 0.602 #16/16 0.672 3942 1.000
NCAAW 2010-2011 0.612 #16/16 0.668 4019 0.625
NCAAW 2009-2010 0.623 #16/16 0.664 4042 -
NCAAW 2008-2009 0.616 #16/16 0.667 3969 0.700
NCAAW 2007-2008 0.608 #16/16 0.670 4036 0.500
NCAAW 2006-2007 0.615 #16/16 0.667 3823 0.750
NCAAW 2005-2006 0.622 #16/16 0.664 4126 -
NCAAW 2004-2005 0.623 #16/16 0.664 3807 0.167
NCAAMD3 2025-2026 0.578 #16/16 0.682 3977 -
NCAAMD3 2024-2025 0.568 #16/16 0.686 3998 -
NCAAMD3 2023-2024 0.586 #16/16 0.679 4141 0.750
NCAAMD3 2022-2023 0.566 #16/16 0.687 3688 0.000
NCAAMD3 2021-2022 0.563 #16/16 0.688 3282 -
NCAAMD3 2020-2021 0.585 #1/1 0.679 1148 -
NCAAMD3 2019-2020 0.571 #16/16 0.685 3910 0.589
NCAAMD3 2018-2019 0.575 #16/16 0.683 3741 0.250
NCAAMD3 2017-2018 0.597 #1/1 0.672 58 0.500
NCAAMD3 2016-2017 0.583 #16/16 0.680 3460 -
NCAAMD3 2015-2016 0.557 #16/16 0.691 2779 -
NCAAMD3 2014-2015 0.579 #16/16 0.681 2420 0.750
NCAAMD3 2013-2014 0.571 #16/16 0.685 3043 0.250
NCAAMD3 2012-2013 0.590 #1/1 0.677 1128 -
NCAAMD2 2025-2026 0.601 #16/16 0.672 3618 -
NCAAMD2 2024-2025 0.591 #16/16 0.677 3783 0.650
NCAAMD2 2023-2024 0.608 #16/16 0.670 3570 0.900
NCAAMD2 2022-2023 0.590 #16/16 0.677 3518 1.000
NCAAMD2 2021-2022 0.582 #16/16 0.680 2886 0.417
NCAAMD2 2020-2021 0.578 #16/16 0.682 1531 0.900
NCAAMD2 2019-2020 0.606 #16/16 0.670 3557 0.740
NCAAMD2 2018-2019 0.594 #16/16 0.675 3572 0.542
NCAAMD2 2017-2018 0.725 #1/1 0.621 44 1.000
NCAAMD2 2016-2017 0.585 #16/16 0.679 3475 0.833
NCAAMD2 2015-2016 0.592 #16/16 0.676 3264 0.750
NCAAMD2 2014-2015 0.590 #16/16 0.677 1991 0.000
NCAAMD2 2013-2014 0.603 #16/16 0.672 1496 0.550
NCAAMD2 2012-2013 0.589 #1/1 0.678 1144 -
NCAAM 2025-2026 0.613 #17/17 0.668 4785 0.548
NCAAM 2024-2025 0.623 #16/16 0.664 4786 0.361
NCAAM 2023-2024 0.627 #16/16 0.662 4710 1.000
NCAAM 2022-2023 0.625 #17/17 0.663 4632 1.000
NCAAM 2021-2022 0.612 #16/16 0.668 4445 0.550
NCAAM 2020-2021 0.591 #16/16 0.677 3016 0.500
NCAAM 2019-2020 0.633 #16/16 0.660 4300 0.657
NCAAM 2018-2019 0.630 #16/16 0.661 4657 0.732
NCAAM 2017-2018 0.641 #16/16 0.657 4294 0.775
NCAAM 2016-2017 0.623 #16/16 0.664 4269 0.688
NCAAM 2015-2016 0.636 #16/16 0.658 4277 0.800
NCAAM 2014-2015 0.628 #16/16 0.661 4263 0.452
NCAAM 2013-2014 0.636 #16/16 0.659 4368 0.583
NCAAM 2012-2013 0.643 #16/16 0.656 4337 0.875
NCAAM 2011-2012 0.646 #16/16 0.655 4132 0.800
NCAAM 2010-2011 0.643 #16/16 0.656 4073 0.575
NCAAM 2009-2010 0.647 #16/16 0.654 4426 0.500
NCAAM 2008-2009 0.649 #16/16 0.653 4483 0.583
NCAAM 2007-2008 0.649 #16/16 0.653 4478 0.625
NCAAM 2006-2007 0.662 #16/16 0.648 4342 0.625
NCAAM 2005-2006 0.649 #16/16 0.653 4309 0.500
NCAAM 2004-2005 0.657 #16/16 0.650 3964 0.500
NCAAM 2003-2004 0.652 #16/16 0.655 3911 0.500
NCAAM 2002-2003 0.657 #16/16 0.653 3929 0.500
NCAAM 2001-2002 0.651 #16/16 0.656 3897 0.500
NCAAM 2000-2001 0.661 #16/16 0.652 3825 0.500
NCAAM 1999-2000 0.652 #16/16 0.655 3840 0.500
NCAAM 1998-1999 0.646 #16/16 0.658 3712 0.500
NCAAM 1997-1998 0.647 #16/16 0.657 3735 0.500
NCAAM 1996-1997 0.663 #16/16 0.651 3600 0.500
NCAAM 1995-1996 0.638 #16/16 0.661 3534 0.500
NCAAM 1994-1995 0.633 #16/16 0.662 3501 0.500
NCAAM 1993-1994 0.650 #16/16 0.656 3517 0.500
NCAAM 1992-1993 0.644 #16/16 0.659 3539 0.500
NCAAM 1991-1992 0.645 #16/16 0.658 3587 0.500
NCAAM 1990-1991 0.640 #16/16 0.660 3470 0.500
NCAAM 1989-1990 0.656 #16/16 0.654 3426 -
NCAAM 1988-1989 0.645 #16/16 0.658 3423 0.667
NBA 2025-2026 0.550 #16/16 0.693 1134 0.250
NBA 2024-2025 0.538 #16/16 0.698 1118 1.000
NBA 2023-2024 0.543 #16/16 0.697 1172 0.750
NBA 2022-2023 0.579 #16/16 0.682 1162 -
NBA 2021-2022 0.548 #17/17 0.694 1150 -
NBA 2020-2021 0.556 #16/16 0.691 1012 -
NBA 2019-2020 0.539 #17/17 0.698 955 0.000
NBA 2018-2019 0.590 #17/17 0.677 1146 0.000
NBA 2017-2018 0.592 #16/16 0.676 1136 -
NBA 2016-2017 0.583 #16/16 0.680 1157 0.750
NBA 2015-2016 0.597 #16/16 0.674 1115 -
NBA 2014-2015 0.575 #16/16 0.683 1153 -
NBA 2013-2014 0.569 #16/16 0.686 1118 -
NBA 2012-2013 0.615 #16/16 0.667 1145 1.000
NBA 2011-2012 0.582 #16/16 0.681 859 -
NBA 2010-2011 0.616 #16/16 0.666 1118 -
NBA 2009-2010 0.598 #16/16 0.674 1140 1.000
NBA 2008-2009 0.621 #16/16 0.665 1118 0.500
NBA 2007-2008 0.615 #16/16 0.667 1160 0.750
NBA 2006-2007 0.591 #16/16 0.677 1139 -
NBA 2005-2006 0.609 #16/16 0.670 1164 -
NBA 2004-2005 0.602 #16/16 0.672 1144 0.250
NBA 2003-2004 0.621 #16/16 0.664 1120 -
NBA 2002-2003 0.626 #16/16 0.663 1084 0.750
NBA 2001-2002 0.590 #16/16 0.677 1096 -
NBA 2000-2001 0.594 #16/16 0.676 1069 -
NBA 1999-2000 0.619 #16/16 0.666 1090 0.750
NBA 1998-1999 0.618 #16/16 0.666 621 0.500
NBA 1997-1998 0.606 #16/16 0.671 1087 0.250
NBA 1996-1997 0.593 #16/16 0.676 1104 0.750
GLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.546 #17/17 0.695 423 0.167
GLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.545 #16/16 0.696 393 0.750
GLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.544 #17/17 0.696 378 0.750
GLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.520 #17/17 0.705 352 0.250
GLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.523 #17/17 0.704 348 -
GLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.667 #2/17 0.646 18 0.667
GLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.529 #17/17 0.702 459 0.682
GLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.571 #17/17 0.685 583 0.750
GLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.537 #17/17 0.698 510 0.333
GLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.549 #17/17 0.694 487 1.000
GLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.579 #17/17 0.681 430 0.250
GLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.557 #17/17 0.691 394 0.750
GLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.565 #17/17 0.687 372 0.250
GLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.571 #17/17 0.686 350 -
GLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.585 #17/17 0.680 346 0.167
GLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.566 #17/17 0.688 352 0.250
GLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.561 #17/17 0.690 344 0.250
GLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.579 #17/17 0.682 337 0.667
GLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.605 #17/17 0.671 299 1.000
GLEAGUE 2006-2007 0.524 #16/16 0.704 252 -
GLEAGUE 2005-2006 0.478 #17/17 0.722 165 -
GLEAGUE 2004-2005 0.551 #16/16 0.695 119 0.417
EUROLEAGUE 2026-2027 0.597 #17/17 0.673 30 0.625
EUROLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.653 #7/17 0.652 342 0.750
EUROLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.607 #17/17 0.670 285 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.649 #17/17 0.654 287 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.632 #7/17 0.660 283 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.638 #10/17 0.658 254 0.167
EUROLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.572 #17/17 0.684 290 0.667
EUROLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.607 #17/17 0.670 216 0.821
EUROLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.639 #17/17 0.658 220 -
EUROLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.626 #16/17 0.664 220 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.648 #14/17 0.653 219 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.634 #17/17 0.659 202 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.616 #17/17 0.667 203 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.643 #17/17 0.655 205 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.586 #17/17 0.679 205 -
EUROLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.624 #17/17 0.663 152 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.634 #14/17 0.659 153 0.500
EUROLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.633 #17/17 0.660 152 -
EUROLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.613 #17/17 0.668 152 0.167
EUROLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.651 #17/17 0.652 195 0.167
EUROCUP 2026-2027 0.583 #17/17 0.688 16 0.583
EUROCUP 2025-2026 0.583 #17/17 0.680 161 -
EUROCUP 2024-2025 0.615 #17/17 0.667 156 -
EUROCUP 2023-2024 0.525 #17/17 0.703 156 -
EUROCUP 2022-2023 0.632 #17/17 0.660 155 -
EUROCUP 2021-2022 0.631 #16/17 0.660 149 -
EUROCUP 2020-2021 0.567 #17/17 0.687 140 -
EUROCUP 2019-2020 0.635 #3/17 0.659 120 0.700
EUROCUP 2018-2019 0.606 #17/17 0.670 150 1.000
EUROCUP 2017-2018 0.610 #17/17 0.669 136 -
EUROCUP 2016-2017 0.631 #17/17 0.660 114 -
EUROCUP 2015-2016 0.605 #16/17 0.672 226 1.000
EUROCUP 2014-2015 0.573 #17/17 0.683 226 -
EUROCUP 2013-2014 0.679 #5/17 0.641 262 -
EUROCUP 2012-2013 0.506 #17/17 0.711 93 -
EUROCUP 2011-2012 0.674 #14/17 0.647 92 1.000
EUROCUP 2010-2011 0.612 #15/17 0.668 93 0.500
EUROCUP 2009-2010 0.587 #15/17 0.678 92 0.500
EUROCUP 2008-2009 0.598 #17/17 0.674 102 0.458
EUROCUP 2007-2008 0.657 #17/17 0.650 245 0.625