Home Team Baseline
Always favor the home team with a fixed prior.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
Intentional dumb baseline. Useful only to ensure richer models beat a naive home-court rule.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
Held-out game predictions
No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season.
League × Season Summary
Home Team Baseline in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.642 | #17/17 | 0.656 | 709 | 0.750 (5 g) |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.706 | #17/17 | 0.629 | 65 | - |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.626 | #17/17 | 0.663 | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.594 | #17/17 | 0.675 | 89 | 0.500 (3 g) |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 0.594 | #17/17 | 0.676 | 76 | - |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 0.715 | #17/17 | 0.627 | 63 | 1.000 (2 g) |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 0.574 | #17/17 | 0.682 | 45 | 1.000 (6 g) |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 0.600 | #17/17 | 0.666 | 34 | - |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 0.691 | #17/17 | 0.638 | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 0.675 | #17/17 | 0.641 | 56 | 1.000 (3 g) |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 0.657 | #17/17 | 0.649 | 53 | - |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 0.725 | #17/17 | 0.622 | 40 | - |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 0.679 | #17/17 | 0.640 | 44 | - |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 0.575 | #17/17 | 0.679 | 77 | - |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 0.655 | #17/17 | 0.656 | 70 | - |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 0.638 | #16/17 | 0.660 | 38 | - |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 0.610 | #17/17 | 0.669 | 46 | - |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 0.610 | #17/17 | 0.666 | 68 | - |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 0.750 | #16/17 | 0.619 | 30 | - |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 0.477 | #17/17 | 0.706 | 27 | - |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 0.572 | #17/17 | 0.665 | 29 | - |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 0.694 | #17/17 | 0.661 | 27 | - |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.657 | #17/17 | 0.650 | 878 | 0.667 (7 g) |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.648 | #17/17 | 0.653 | 972 | 0.250 (5 g) |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.670 | #12/12 | 0.645 | 1015 | 1.000 (5 g) |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.763 | #14/17 | 0.677 | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.611 | #17/17 | 0.668 | 62 | - |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.667 | #1/17 | 0.646 | 6 | - |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.684 | #16/17 | 0.624 | 25 | - |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.567 | #17/17 | 0.687 | 23 | - |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.633 | #17/17 | 0.656 | 53 | - |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | - | - | 0.714 | 2 | - |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.683 | #17/17 | 0.639 | 19 | - |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.375 | #17/17 | 0.736 | 18 | - |