Home Team Baseline
Always favor the home team with a fixed prior.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
Intentional dumb baseline. Useful only to ensure richer models beat a naive home-court rule.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.555 (#8) · 1454 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | - · 0 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | - · 0 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAWD3 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley-Terry | 0.954 | #1 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Margin | 0.954 | #2 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.943 | #3 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.942 | #4 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Elo | 0.909 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.894 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Pythagorean | 0.881 | #7 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
| Home Team Baseline | 0.555 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Home Team Baseline. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.781 | #16 | 0.693 | #16 | 21 | 3 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.555 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.570 | #9 | 0.688 | #15 | 0.686 | #14 | 14 | 1 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.595 | #10 | 0.656 | #16 | 0.666 | #16 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.582 | #8 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.592 | #10 | 0.660 | #16 | 0.661 | #15 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.638 | #10 | 0.667 | #12 | 0.652 | #16 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.689 | #9 | 0.679 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.635 | #9 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.628 | #9 | 0.679 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.600 | #8 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.650 | #8 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.667 | #6 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.624 | #8 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.632 | #8 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.622 | #7 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.682 | #6 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.615 | #8 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.623 | #8 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.645 | #7 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.634 | #7 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.656 | #7 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.648 | #6 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.643 | #6 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.642 | #7 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.688 | #2 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.646 | #6 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.650 | #2 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.655 | #2 | 0.679 | #6 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.551 | #10 | 0.598 | #5 | 0.691 | #16 | 26 | 2 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.539 | #5 | 0.815 | #13 | 0.699 | #15 | 22 | 3 |