Recency Ensemble
Equal-logit blend of Elo, recency BT, recency margin, log-adjusted pyth, and recency points off/def.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | EnsR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Current strongest team hybrid in the strict bakeoff. It keeps the blend structure from Core Ensemble but swaps in the recency-weighted points off/def component.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | - · 0 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.541 (#7) · 285 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.540 (#2) · 14 windows |
| Window Wins | 1 · 72.7% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAMD2 2025-2026. The focus line is Recency Ensemble. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 14 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 - Feb 7 | 0.539 | #7/16 | Points Off/Def (0.528) |
| Jan 28 - Feb 3 | 0.570 | #2/16 | Core Ensemble (0.570) |
| Jan 21 - Jan 27 | 0.540 | #6/16 | Margin Recency (0.533) |
| Jan 14 - Jan 20 | 0.561 | #5/16 | Margin (0.551) |
| Jan 7 - Jan 13 | 0.582 | #4/16 | Margin (0.569) |
| Dec 31 - Jan 6 | 0.553 | #4/16 | Margin (0.549) |
| Dec 24 - Dec 30 | 0.316 | #10/16 | Margin (0.237) |
| Dec 17 - Dec 23 | 0.582 | #6/16 | Margin (0.569) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAMD2 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.541 | #6 | 0.539 | #1 | 14 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.541 | #7 | 0.540 | #2 | 14 |
| Margin | 0.802 | #3 | 0.535 | #4 | 0.541 | #3 | 14 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.536 | #5 | 0.543 | #4 | 14 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.874 | #1 | 0.560 | #8 | 0.554 | #5 | 14 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.796 | #5 | 0.533 | #2 | 0.565 | #6 | 14 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | - | - | 0.533 | #1 | 0.573 | #7 | 14 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.799 | #4 | 0.584 | #13 | 0.592 | #8 | 14 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Recency Ensemble. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.529 | #4 | 0.625 | #3 | 21 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.484 | #1 | 0.530 | #1 | 14 | 4 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.566 | #3 | 0.500 | #2 | 22 | 5 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.541 | #7 | 0.540 | #2 | 14 | 1 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.637 | #7 | 0.553 | #3 | 22 | 4 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.616 | #8 | 0.610 | #1 | 26 | 0 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.811 | #12 | 0.668 | #5 | 22 | 0 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 730 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 697 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 592 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 781 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 603 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 704 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 37 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |