Team model
Elo
Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | elo | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Classic Elo fit on scored games with home-court handling; ratings update game by game. Season starts follow each league's configuration: a preseason prior where available, previous ratings regressed toward the mean where carryover is enabled, or the league mean otherwise. New teams use the configured entrant rating.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
135 published model outputs for NCAAMD2 2026-2027.
Held-out game predictions
No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season.
League × Season Summary
Elo in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.901 | #12/17 | 0.393 | 709 | 0.667 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.949 | #13/17 | 0.300 | 65 | - |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.970 | #13/17 | 0.242 | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.947 | #9/17 | 0.299 | 89 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 0.924 | #12/17 | 0.366 | 76 | - |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 0.910 | #1/17 | 0.387 | 63 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 0.973 | #14/17 | 0.167 | 45 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 0.911 | #12/17 | 0.412 | 34 | - |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 0.956 | #2/17 | 0.287 | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 0.955 | #1/17 | 0.273 | 56 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 0.925 | #8/17 | 0.348 | 53 | - |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 0.990 | #1/17 | 0.167 | 40 | - |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 0.899 | #10/17 | 0.400 | 44 | - |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 0.861 | #12/17 | 0.441 | 77 | - |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 0.859 | #13/17 | 0.470 | 70 | - |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 0.786 | #7/17 | 0.537 | 38 | - |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 0.903 | #11/17 | 0.405 | 46 | - |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 0.946 | #15/17 | 0.318 | 68 | - |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 0.855 | #6/17 | 0.399 | 30 | - |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 0.849 | #11/17 | 0.465 | 27 | - |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 0.922 | #15/17 | 0.381 | 29 | - |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 0.901 | #10/17 | 0.378 | 27 | - |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.851 | #10/17 | 0.476 | 878 | 0.833 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.834 | #10/17 | 0.497 | 972 | 0.500 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.814 | #7/12 | 0.529 | 1015 | 1.000 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.877 | #1/17 | 0.384 | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.950 | #5/17 | 0.313 | 62 | - |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.444 | #3/17 | 1.057 | 6 | - |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.778 | #3/17 | 0.544 | 25 | - |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.875 | #1/17 | 0.381 | 23 | - |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.833 | #2/17 | 0.503 | 53 | - |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | - | - | 0.665 | 2 | - |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.756 | #6/17 | 0.655 | 19 | - |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.847 | #4/17 | 0.520 | 18 | - |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2026 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2025 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2024 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2023 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2022 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2021 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2020 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2019 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2018 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2017 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2016 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2015 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2013 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2012 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2010 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2009 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2005 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2003 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2001 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2000 | 16 |
| WNBA | 1999 | 12 |
| WNBA | 1998 | 10 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 8 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2026-2027 | 350 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 413 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 418 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2023-2024 | 423 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2022-2023 | 358 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2021-2022 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2020-2021 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2019-2020 | 347 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2018-2019 | 623 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2017-2018 | 151 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2016-2017 | 658 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2015-2016 | 671 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2014-2015 | 650 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2013-2014 | 522 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2012-2013 | 498 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2026-2027 | 197 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 292 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 293 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2023-2024 | 290 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2022-2023 | 292 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2021-2022 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2020-2021 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2019-2020 | 292 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2018-2019 | 291 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2017-2018 | 205 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2016-2017 | 294 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2015-2016 | 685 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2014-2015 | 653 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2013-2014 | 512 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2012-2013 | 481 |
| NCAAW | 2026-2027 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 360 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 361 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 356 |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 335 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 351 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 351 |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 349 |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 349 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 349 |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 349 |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 349 |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 345 |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 343 |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 343 |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 345 |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 345 |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 339 |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 335 |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 332 |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 328 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2026-2027 | 353 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 400 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 402 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2023-2024 | 405 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2022-2023 | 403 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2021-2022 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2020-2021 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2019-2020 | 402 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2018-2019 | 398 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2017-2018 | 255 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2016-2017 | 401 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2015-2016 | 683 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2014-2015 | 672 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2013-2014 | 571 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2012-2013 | 562 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2026-2027 | 135 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 292 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 295 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2023-2024 | 297 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2022-2023 | 296 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2021-2022 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2020-2021 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2019-2020 | 303 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2018-2019 | 303 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2017-2018 | 246 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2016-2017 | 307 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2015-2016 | 709 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2014-2015 | 693 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2013-2014 | 550 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2012-2013 | 510 |
| NCAAM | 2026-2027 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 362 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 363 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 358 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 344 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 353 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 353 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 351 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 351 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 351 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 351 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 351 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 347 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 345 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 345 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 347 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 347 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 341 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 336 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 334 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 330 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 1182 |
| NCAAM | 2002-2003 | 327 |
| NCAAM | 2001-2002 | 323 |
| NCAAM | 2000-2001 | 318 |
| NCAAM | 1999-2000 | 318 |
| NCAAM | 1998-1999 | 310 |
| NCAAM | 1997-1998 | 307 |
| NCAAM | 1996-1997 | 306 |
| NCAAM | 1995-1996 | 305 |
| NCAAM | 1994-1995 | 302 |
| NCAAM | 1993-1994 | 301 |
| NCAAM | 1992-1993 | 298 |
| NCAAM | 1991-1992 | 298 |
| NCAAM | 1990-1991 | 295 |
| NCAAM | 1989-1990 | 292 |
| NCAAM | 1988-1989 | 293 |
| NBA | 2026-2027 | 30 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 30 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 30 |
| NBA | 2017-2018 | 30 |
| NBA | 2016-2017 | 30 |
| NBA | 2015-2016 | 30 |
| NBA | 2014-2015 | 30 |
| NBA | 2013-2014 | 30 |
| NBA | 2012-2013 | 30 |
| NBA | 2011-2012 | 30 |
| NBA | 2010-2011 | 30 |
| NBA | 2009-2010 | 30 |
| NBA | 2008-2009 | 30 |
| NBA | 2007-2008 | 30 |
| NBA | 2006-2007 | 30 |
| NBA | 2005-2006 | 30 |
| NBA | 2004-2005 | 30 |
| NBA | 2003-2004 | 29 |
| NBA | 2002-2003 | 29 |
| NBA | 2001-2002 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1999-2000 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2026-2027 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 28 |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 28 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 22 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 19 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 14 |
| GLEAGUE | 2006-2007 | 12 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 8 |
| GLEAGUE | 2004-2005 | 6 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2026-2027 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2026-2027 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |