Team model
Elo
Streaming paired-comparison rating with recency baked into sequential updates.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | elo | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Classic Elo fit on scored games with home-court handling. Good general win model baseline and already inherently time-aware because ratings update game by game.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.745 (#9) · 1096 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.587 (#8) · 25 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.622 (#9) · 26 windows |
| Window Wins | 7 · 66.4% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NBA 2025-2026. The focus line is Elo. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 26 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 - Apr 18 | 0.665 | #5/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.562) |
| Apr 8 - Apr 14 | 0.522 | #1 | Elo |
| Apr 1 - Apr 7 | 0.479 | #1 | Elo |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.519 | #3/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.510) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.475 | #1 | Elo |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.564 | #3/16 | Adjusted Context Blend (0.560) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.617 | #13/16 | Adjusted Efficiency (0.590) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.497 | #3/16 | Log Adjusted (0.495) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NBA 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.580 | #3 | 0.612 | #1 | 26 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.580 | #4 | 0.613 | #2 | 26 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.581 | #5 | 0.616 | #3 | 26 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | - | - | 0.581 | #6 | 0.616 | #4 | 26 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | - | - | 0.575 | #2 | 0.619 | #5 | 26 |
| Elo | 0.745 | #9 | 0.587 | #8 | 0.622 | #9 | 26 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Elo. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.379 | #1 | 0.617 | #1 | 21 | 6 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.909 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.849 | #4 | 0.512 | #9 | 0.590 | #9 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.841 | #7 | 0.621 | #11 | 0.586 | #13 | 22 | 1 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.898 | #5 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.844 | #2 | 0.578 | #11 | 0.613 | #14 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.783 | #8 | 0.723 | #15 | 0.627 | #13 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.758 | #8 | 0.651 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.655 | #8 | 0.649 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.653 | #8 | 0.649 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.649 | #7 | 0.643 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.652 | #7 | 0.645 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.619 | #8 | 0.646 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.692 | #7 | 0.643 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.655 | #7 | 0.640 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.620 | #8 | 0.637 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.641 | #8 | 0.641 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.664 | #7 | 0.641 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.644 | #7 | 0.639 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.610 | #8 | 0.641 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.595 | #8 | 0.646 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.634 | #8 | 0.644 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.602 | #8 | 0.641 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.634 | #7 | 0.643 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.647 | #6 | 0.643 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.592 | #7 | 0.643 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.597 | #8 | 0.639 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.583 | #8 | 0.637 | #1 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.580 | #8 | 0.641 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.745 | #9 | 0.587 | #8 | 0.622 | #9 | 26 | 7 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.544 | #2 | 0.953 | #16 | 0.693 | #14 | 22 | 0 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| WNBA | 2024 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2023-2024 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2022-2023 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2021-2022 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2020-2021 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2019 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2018 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2017 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2016 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2015 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2013 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2012 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2010 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2009 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2005 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2003 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2001 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2000 | 16 |
| WNBA | 1999 | 12 |
| WNBA | 1998 | 10 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 8 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2023-2024 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2022-2023 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2021-2022 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2020-2021 | 459 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2019-2020 | 639 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2018-2019 | 623 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2017-2018 | 151 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2016-2017 | 658 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2015-2016 | 671 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2014-2015 | 650 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2013-2014 | 522 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2012-2013 | 498 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 539 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2023-2024 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2022-2023 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2021-2022 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2020-2021 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2019-2020 | 600 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2018-2019 | 636 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2017-2018 | 205 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2016-2017 | 659 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2015-2016 | 685 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2014-2015 | 653 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2013-2014 | 512 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2012-2013 | 481 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 374 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 374 |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 377 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 384 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 394 |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 395 |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 620 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 623 |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 625 |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 631 |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 641 |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 650 |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2003-2004 | 658 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 652 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2023-2024 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2022-2023 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2021-2022 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2020-2021 | 452 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2019-2020 | 677 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2018-2019 | 644 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2017-2018 | 255 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2016-2017 | 691 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2015-2016 | 683 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2014-2015 | 672 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2013-2014 | 571 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2012-2013 | 562 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2023-2024 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2022-2023 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2021-2022 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2020-2021 | 400 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2019-2020 | 674 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2018-2019 | 689 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2017-2018 | 246 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2016-2017 | 715 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2015-2016 | 709 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2014-2015 | 693 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2013-2014 | 550 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2012-2013 | 510 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 611 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 708 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 764 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 800 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 877 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 931 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 974 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 1007 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 1045 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 1078 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 1101 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 1107 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 1120 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 1126 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 1130 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 1142 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 1149 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 1159 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 1168 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 1177 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 1182 |
| NCAAM | 2002-2003 | 328 |
| NCAAM | 2001-2002 | 324 |
| NCAAM | 2000-2001 | 319 |
| NCAAM | 1999-2000 | 319 |
| NCAAM | 1998-1999 | 311 |
| NCAAM | 1997-1998 | 308 |
| NCAAM | 1996-1997 | 307 |
| NCAAM | 1995-1996 | 306 |
| NCAAM | 1994-1995 | 303 |
| NCAAM | 1993-1994 | 302 |
| NCAAM | 1992-1993 | 299 |
| NCAAM | 1991-1992 | 299 |
| NCAAM | 1990-1991 | 296 |
| NCAAM | 1989-1990 | 293 |
| NCAAM | 1988-1989 | 294 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 32 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 23 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 30 |
| NBA | 2017-2018 | 30 |
| NBA | 2016-2017 | 30 |
| NBA | 2015-2016 | 30 |
| NBA | 2014-2015 | 30 |
| NBA | 2013-2014 | 30 |
| NBA | 2012-2013 | 30 |
| NBA | 2011-2012 | 30 |
| NBA | 2010-2011 | 30 |
| NBA | 2009-2010 | 28 |
| NBA | 2002-2003 | 29 |
| NBA | 2001-2002 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1999-2000 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 25 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 21 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 13 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 11 |
| GLEAGUE | 2006-2007 | 7 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 3 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 25 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 17 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 33 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |