Dynamic Bradley-Terry
Time-evolving paired-comparison model with latent team strength drift.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | DynBT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | elo | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Glicko-style paired-comparison model with team uncertainty that expands during idle stretches and tightens with new games. This is the first explicit temporal paired-comparison model beyond static BT plus recency weighting.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | - · 0 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.549 (#6) · 3 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.628 (#5) · 21 windows |
| Window Wins | 1 · 67.0% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for WNBA 2025. The focus line is Dynamic Bradley-Terry. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 21 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 - Oct 10 | 0.490 | #6/16 | Elo (0.222) |
| Oct 2 - Oct 8 | 0.563 | #9/16 | Elo (0.479) |
| Sep 25 - Oct 1 | 0.743 | #9/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.592) |
| Sep 18 - Sep 24 | 0.741 | #15/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.685) |
| Sep 11 - Sep 17 | 0.655 | #12/16 | Points Off/Def (0.610) |
| Sep 4 - Sep 10 | 0.508 | #1 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry |
| Aug 28 - Sep 3 | 0.494 | #5/16 | Elo (0.473) |
| Aug 21 - Aug 27 | 0.613 | #4/16 | Elo (0.553) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for WNBA 2025. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | - | - | 0.379 | #1 | 0.617 | #1 | 21 |
| Bradley-Terry Recency | - | - | 0.441 | #2 | 0.619 | #2 | 21 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.529 | #4 | 0.625 | #3 | 21 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.548 | #5 | 0.627 | #4 | 21 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | - | - | 0.549 | #6 | 0.628 | #5 | 21 |
| Bradley-Terry | - | - | 0.521 | #3 | 0.630 | #6 | 21 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | - | - | 0.615 | #9 | 0.633 | #7 | 21 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | - | - | 0.590 | #7 | 0.635 | #8 | 21 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Dynamic Bradley-Terry. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.549 | #6 | 0.628 | #5 | 21 | 1 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.506 | #8 | 0.566 | #6 | 14 | 1 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.603 | #9 | 0.555 | #8 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.562 | #9 | 0.596 | #10 | 13 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.688 | #14 | 0.595 | #10 | 22 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.658 | #2 | 0.612 | #5 | 27 | 1 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.860 | #14 | 0.691 | #13 | 22 | 3 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 582 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 526 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 592 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 640 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 514 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 704 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 37 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |