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Team model

Bradley-Terry Recency

Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games.

Status implemented Short Name BTr
Rating Style elo Where Shown teams rankings, team pages, model performance

Model Card

Same paired-comparison form as Bradley-Terry, but newer games receive more weight. This is the simplest bridge between static BT and fully dynamic team models.

Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

Output Coverage

Stored site-output rows for this model.

League Season Rows
WNBA 2026 18
WNBA 2025 17
NCAAWD3 2025-2026 730
NCAAWD2 2025-2026 697
NCAAW 2025-2026 592
NCAAMD3 2025-2026 781
NCAAMD2 2025-2026 603
NCAAM 2025-2026 365
NCAAM 2021-2022 654
NCAAM 2012-2013 593
NBA 2025-2026 37
GLEAGUE 2025-2026 31