Bradley-Terry Recency
Static Bradley-Terry with exponential recency weights on newer games.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | BTr |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | elo | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Same paired-comparison form as Bradley-Terry, but newer games receive more weight. This is the simplest bridge between static BT and fully dynamic team models.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | - · 0 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.933 (#15) · 4 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.682 (#9) · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 58.0% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for GLEAGUE 2025-2026. The focus line is Bradley-Terry Recency. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 - Apr 10 | 0.917 | #16/16 | Log Adjusted (0.567) |
| Apr 1 - Apr 7 | 0.628 | #14/16 | Log Adjusted (0.563) |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.721 | #10/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.650) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.684 | #5/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.674) |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.769 | #12/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.601) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.650 | #10/16 | Pythagorean (0.624) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.617 | #7/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.591) |
| Feb 18 - Feb 24 | 0.704 | #3/16 | Points Off/Def Recency (0.692) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for GLEAGUE 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Off/Def Recency | - | - | 0.781 | #8 | 0.660 | #1 | 22 |
| Pythagorean | 0.532 | #6 | 0.680 | #4 | 0.661 | #2 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.521 | #7 | 0.692 | #6 | 0.664 | #3 | 22 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.686 | #1 | 0.655 | #3 | 0.664 | #4 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.811 | #12 | 0.668 | #5 | 22 |
| Bradley-Terry Recency | - | - | 0.933 | #15 | 0.682 | #9 | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Bradley-Terry Recency. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.441 | #2 | 0.619 | #2 | 21 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.527 | #11 | 0.581 | #8 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.639 | #14 | 0.596 | #14 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.580 | #12 | 0.610 | #13 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.727 | #16 | 0.643 | #15 | 22 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.709 | #2 | 0.621 | #5 | 26 | 1 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | - | - | 0.933 | #15 | 0.682 | #9 | 22 | 0 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 730 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 697 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 592 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 781 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 603 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 704 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 37 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |