Team model
Bradley-Terry
Static logistic paired-comparison model with one team strength parameter.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | BT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | elo | Where Shown | teams rankings, team pages, model performance |
Model Card
Win/loss model of the form logit(P(team i beats team j)) = eta_i - eta_j + beta_home. This is the clean static paired-comparison baseline.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.486 (#9) · 756 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.736 (#7) · 4 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.686 (#12) · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 56.4% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for GLEAGUE 2025-2026. The focus line is Bradley-Terry. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8 - Apr 10 | 0.751 | #13/16 | Log Adjusted (0.567) |
| Apr 1 - Apr 7 | 0.597 | #7/16 | Log Adjusted (0.563) |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.774 | #16/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.650) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.676 | #2/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.674) |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.776 | #13/16 | Home Team Baseline (0.601) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.649 | #8/16 | Pythagorean (0.624) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.623 | #9/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.591) |
| Feb 18 - Feb 24 | 0.736 | #12/16 | Points Off/Def Recency (0.692) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for GLEAGUE 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Off/Def Recency | - | - | 0.781 | #8 | 0.660 | #1 | 22 |
| Pythagorean | 0.532 | #6 | 0.680 | #4 | 0.661 | #2 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.521 | #7 | 0.692 | #6 | 0.664 | #3 | 22 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.686 | #1 | 0.655 | #3 | 0.664 | #4 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.811 | #12 | 0.668 | #5 | 22 |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.486 | #9 | 0.736 | #7 | 0.686 | #12 | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Bradley-Terry. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.521 | #3 | 0.630 | #6 | 21 | 2 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.954 | #1 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.858 | #1 | 0.518 | #10 | 0.573 | #7 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.876 | #2 | 0.614 | #10 | 0.583 | #12 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.937 | #1 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.796 | #5 | 0.564 | #9 | 0.601 | #12 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.823 | #1 | 0.649 | #10 | 0.630 | #14 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.841 | #3 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.767 | #1 | 0.639 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.756 | #3 | 0.646 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.756 | #4 | 0.647 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.727 | #2 | 0.645 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.710 | #2 | 0.641 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.796 | #2 | 0.641 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.731 | #4 | 0.641 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.747 | #5 | 0.641 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.702 | #2 | 0.644 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.764 | #4 | 0.644 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.683 | #6 | 0.641 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.682 | #4 | 0.644 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.714 | #4 | 0.654 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.676 | #4 | 0.665 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.663 | #2 | 0.666 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.672 | #2 | 0.667 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.674 | #2 | 0.665 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.617 | #3 | 0.662 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.656 | #4 | 0.666 | #4 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.640 | #6 | 0.671 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.645 | #6 | 0.669 | #5 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.751 | #7 | 0.613 | #7 | 0.622 | #12 | 26 | 1 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.486 | #9 | 0.736 | #7 | 0.686 | #12 | 22 | 0 |
Output Coverage
Stored site-output rows for this model.
| League | Season | Rows |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| WNBA | 2024 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2023 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2022 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2021 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2020 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2019 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2018 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2017 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2016 | 12 |
| WNBA | 2015 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2014 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2013 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2012 | 13 |
| WNBA | 2011 | 17 |
| WNBA | 2010 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2009 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2008 | 14 |
| WNBA | 2007 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2006 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2005 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2004 | 15 |
| WNBA | 2003 | 16 |
| WNBA | 2002 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2001 | 18 |
| WNBA | 2000 | 16 |
| WNBA | 1999 | 12 |
| WNBA | 1998 | 10 |
| WNBA | 1997 | 8 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 604 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2024-2025 | 475 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2023-2024 | 475 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2022-2023 | 506 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2021-2022 | 506 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2020-2021 | 506 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2019-2020 | 639 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2018-2019 | 623 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2017-2018 | 151 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2016-2017 | 658 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2015-2016 | 671 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2014-2015 | 650 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2013-2014 | 522 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2012-2013 | 498 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 539 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2024-2025 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2023-2024 | 368 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2022-2023 | 408 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2021-2022 | 408 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2020-2021 | 408 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2019-2020 | 600 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2018-2019 | 636 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2017-2018 | 205 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2016-2017 | 659 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2015-2016 | 685 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2014-2015 | 653 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2013-2014 | 512 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2012-2013 | 481 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 362 |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 363 |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 407 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 407 |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 421 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 461 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 504 |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 527 |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 553 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 623 |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 625 |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 631 |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 645 |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 658 |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 668 |
| NCAAW | 2003-2004 | 668 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 652 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2024-2025 | 492 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2023-2024 | 492 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2022-2023 | 520 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2021-2022 | 520 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2020-2021 | 520 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2019-2020 | 677 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2018-2019 | 644 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2017-2018 | 255 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2016-2017 | 691 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2015-2016 | 683 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2014-2015 | 672 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2013-2014 | 571 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2012-2013 | 562 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 544 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2024-2025 | 417 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2023-2024 | 417 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2022-2023 | 421 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2021-2022 | 421 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2020-2021 | 421 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2019-2020 | 674 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2018-2019 | 689 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2017-2018 | 246 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2016-2017 | 715 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2015-2016 | 709 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2014-2015 | 693 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2013-2014 | 550 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2012-2013 | 510 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 365 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 364 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 611 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 711 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 764 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 804 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 884 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 939 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 982 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 1015 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 1056 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 1091 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 1113 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 1119 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 1134 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 1141 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 1145 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 1156 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 1163 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 1173 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 1182 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 1191 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 1196 |
| NCAAM | 2002-2003 | 328 |
| NCAAM | 2001-2002 | 324 |
| NCAAM | 2000-2001 | 319 |
| NCAAM | 1999-2000 | 319 |
| NCAAM | 1998-1999 | 311 |
| NCAAM | 1997-1998 | 308 |
| NCAAM | 1996-1997 | 307 |
| NCAAM | 1995-1996 | 306 |
| NCAAM | 1994-1995 | 303 |
| NCAAM | 1993-1994 | 302 |
| NCAAM | 1992-1993 | 299 |
| NCAAM | 1991-1992 | 299 |
| NCAAM | 1990-1991 | 296 |
| NCAAM | 1989-1990 | 293 |
| NCAAM | 1988-1989 | 294 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 28 |
| NBA | 2024-2025 | 30 |
| NBA | 2023-2024 | 30 |
| NBA | 2022-2023 | 30 |
| NBA | 2021-2022 | 30 |
| NBA | 2020-2021 | 30 |
| NBA | 2019-2020 | 30 |
| NBA | 2018-2019 | 30 |
| NBA | 2017-2018 | 30 |
| NBA | 2016-2017 | 30 |
| NBA | 2015-2016 | 30 |
| NBA | 2014-2015 | 30 |
| NBA | 2013-2014 | 30 |
| NBA | 2012-2013 | 30 |
| NBA | 2011-2012 | 30 |
| NBA | 2010-2011 | 30 |
| NBA | 2002-2003 | 29 |
| NBA | 2001-2002 | 29 |
| NBA | 2000-2001 | 29 |
| NBA | 1999-2000 | 29 |
| NBA | 1998-1999 | 29 |
| NBA | 1997-1998 | 29 |
| NBA | 1996-1997 | 29 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 31 |
| GLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 27 |
| GLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 26 |
| GLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 25 |
| GLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 21 |
| GLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 18 |
| GLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 17 |
| GLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 16 |
| GLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 15 |
| GLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 13 |
| GLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 11 |
| GLEAGUE | 2006-2007 | 7 |
| GLEAGUE | 2005-2006 | 3 |
| GLEAGUE | 2004-2005 | 3 |
| GLEAGUE | 2003-2004 | 3 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2024-2025 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2023-2024 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2022-2023 | 21 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2021-2022 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2020-2021 | 25 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2019-2020 | 18 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2018-2019 | 17 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2017-2018 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2016-2017 | 16 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2015-2016 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2014-2015 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2013-2014 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2012-2013 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2011-2012 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2010-2011 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2009-2010 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2008-2009 | 24 |
| EUROLEAGUE | 2007-2008 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2025-2026 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2024-2025 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2023-2024 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2022-2023 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2021-2022 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2020-2021 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2019-2020 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2018-2019 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2017-2018 | 24 |
| EUROCUP | 2016-2017 | 20 |
| EUROCUP | 2015-2016 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2014-2015 | 44 |
| EUROCUP | 2013-2014 | 56 |
| EUROCUP | 2012-2013 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2011-2012 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2010-2011 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2009-2010 | 32 |
| EUROCUP | 2008-2009 | 33 |
| EUROCUP | 2007-2008 | 54 |