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Model Card

Box: game totals spread by minutes; cannot separate teammates; for seasons without play-by-play. Sequential Box Elo on negative turnovers per 100 possessions. Positive values mean a player's minutes tend to improve team ball security.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Turnovers Box Elo (ball security) against any counting stat (one point per player; choose any season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the Box Elo forms.

Lineup RAPM vs Box Elo, per season

Both forms of this family are shown side by side wherever a season publishes them; this table is information, not a switch. Each column is the held-out correlation of that form's predictions with the actual per-segment margin (fit before a date, scored on later segments); within two paired standard errors the two predict equally well. Correlations are small in absolute terms: a segment holds about one such event. Held-out correlation does not penalize a Box form for not telling teammates apart; the season links show each form's team share.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).