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Model Card

Sequential event model on negative turnovers per 100 possessions. Positive values mean a player's minutes tend to improve team ball security.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, a model trained on earlier games predicts each following week without learning from that week. Predictions use the players' observed minutes; each point is the minutes-weighted predicted and actual rate in that player's games. The source inputs were not verified as identical to the published model revision.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Ball Security Elo against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.

Stat RAPM or event Elo, per season

Each season serves one method for this stat: stat RAPM when its predictions followed the actual per-segment margin better on held-out games (fit before a date, scored on later segments) by more than two paired standard errors; within that the two are tied and the event Elo serves. Correlations are small in absolute terms; a segment holds about one such event.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).