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Team model

Avg Margin Baseline

Predict from simple average scoring margin in the training window.

Status implemented Short Name AvgMarg
Rating Style probability Where Shown model performance

Model Card

Training-only average margin baseline. Another cheap sanity check for whether a richer team model adds signal beyond raw per-game margin.

Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

Full-season AUC 0.766 (#11 of 16) · 3618 games
Full-season log loss 0.576
Final-week AUC - · 1 games

Peers in NCAAMD2 2025-2026

Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.

Model AUC Rank LogLoss AUC final wk Final wk rank
Points Off/Def 0.804 #1 0.546 - -
Margin 0.802 #2 0.544 - -
Margin Recency 0.801 #3 0.545 - -
Points Off/Def Recency 0.800 #4 0.550 - -
Core Ensemble 0.796 #5 0.547 - -
Recency Ensemble 0.796 #6 0.547 - -
Adjusted Context Blend 0.790 #7 0.584 - -
Adjusted Efficiency 0.785 #8 0.579 - -
Log Adjusted 0.784 #9 0.580 - -
Dynamic Bradley-Terry 0.769 #10 0.576 - -
Avg Margin Baseline 0.766 #11 0.576 - -
Bradley-Terry 0.764 #12 0.579 - -
Elo 0.762 #13 0.583 - -
Bradley-Terry Recency 0.758 #14 0.589 - -
Pythagorean 0.756 #15 0.592 - -
Home Team Baseline 0.601 #16 0.672 - -

League × Season Summary

Avg Margin Baseline in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.

League Season AUC Rank LogLoss Games AUC final wk
WNBA 2026 0.759 #9/17 0.593 292 0.500
WNBA 2025 0.680 #16/17 0.642 260 -
WNBA 2024 0.742 #11/17 0.604 198 0.500
WNBA 2023 0.736 #11/17 0.598 207 0.500
WNBA 2022 0.688 #1/17 0.624 189 0.500
WNBA 2021 0.709 #2/17 0.616 159 0.500
WNBA 2020 0.744 #3/17 0.578 81 -
WNBA 2019 0.687 #3/17 0.636 180 0.500
WNBA 2018 0.627 #15/16 0.662 166 -
WNBA 2017 0.707 #11/17 0.621 174 0.500
WNBA 2016 0.669 #7/16 0.631 171 0.500
WNBA 2015 0.551 #16/16 0.687 169 0.500
WNBA 2014 0.638 #11/17 0.659 179 -
WNBA 2013 0.662 #9/17 0.650 194 -
WNBA 2012 0.688 #11/17 0.614 179 0.500
WNBA 2011 0.715 #14/17 0.615 183 -
WNBA 2010 0.715 #10/17 0.627 171 -
WNBA 2009 0.560 #13/17 0.693 196 0.500
WNBA 2008 0.596 #16/17 0.676 208 1.000
WNBA 2007 0.547 #16/17 0.689 194 0.500
WNBA 2006 0.678 #12/17 0.642 205 0.500
WNBA 2005 0.696 #12/16 0.633 186 0.500
WNBA 2004 0.530 #11/17 0.700 199 0.500
WNBA 2003 0.608 #12/16 0.669 200 0.500
WNBA 2002 0.611 #12/17 0.673 211 1.000
WNBA 2001 0.712 #11/16 0.631 194 0.917
WNBA 2000 0.749 #14/16 0.592 181 1.000
WNBA 1999 0.627 #15/16 0.669 138 0.667
WNBA 1998 0.793 #11/16 0.565 106 0.850
WNBA 1997 0.600 #11/17 0.671 78 0.667
NCAAWD3 2025-2026 0.827 #13/16 0.509 3493 0.500
NCAAWD3 2024-2025 0.846 #13/16 0.486 4184 0.875
NCAAWD3 2023-2024 0.857 #13/16 0.474 3953 -
NCAAWD3 2022-2023 0.839 #13/16 0.494 3019 0.800
NCAAWD3 2021-2022 0.812 #13/16 0.529 2331 1.000
NCAAWD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 0.948
NCAAWD3 2019-2020 0.830 #12/16 0.507 2955 0.660
NCAAWD3 2018-2019 0.826 #11/16 0.510 2659 0.500
NCAAWD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD3 2016-2017 0.829 #12/16 0.504 2423 -
NCAAWD3 2015-2016 0.814 #11/16 0.531 1888 -
NCAAWD3 2014-2015 0.809 #11/16 0.535 1325 -
NCAAWD3 2013-2014 0.830 #12/16 0.507 2193 0.333
NCAAWD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2025-2026 0.817 #11/16 0.523 3312 0.833
NCAAWD2 2024-2025 0.809 #11/16 0.534 3553 0.867
NCAAWD2 2023-2024 0.799 #13/16 0.543 3482 0.750
NCAAWD2 2022-2023 0.794 #12/16 0.547 3336 -
NCAAWD2 2021-2022 0.798 #12/16 0.543 2624 0.900
NCAAWD2 2020-2021 0.794 #10/16 0.553 1499 -
NCAAWD2 2019-2020 0.815 #12/16 0.524 3154 0.806
NCAAWD2 2018-2019 0.817 #10/16 0.523 3137 0.833
NCAAWD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2016-2017 0.812 #10/16 0.529 3208 1.000
NCAAWD2 2015-2016 0.771 #12/16 0.577 1815 -
NCAAWD2 2014-2015 0.774 #11/16 0.571 1508 -
NCAAWD2 2013-2014 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAWD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 0.667
NCAAW 2025-2026 0.814 #10/17 0.525 4742 0.625
NCAAW 2024-2025 0.810 #13/17 0.532 4691 0.980
NCAAW 2023-2024 0.794 #13/17 0.547 4590 0.556
NCAAW 2022-2023 0.795 #13/17 0.547 4508 0.750
NCAAW 2021-2022 0.796 #13/16 0.547 3927 0.750
NCAAW 2020-2021 0.777 #13/16 0.569 2838 0.750
NCAAW 2019-2020 0.794 #13/16 0.549 4254 0.843
NCAAW 2018-2019 0.806 #13/16 0.538 4209 0.600
NCAAW 2017-2018 0.814 #13/16 0.530 4136 0.357
NCAAW 2016-2017 0.795 #13/16 0.547 4117 0.867
NCAAW 2015-2016 0.807 #13/16 0.538 4093 1.000
NCAAW 2014-2015 0.800 #13/16 0.544 4106 0.625
NCAAW 2013-2014 0.789 #13/16 0.554 4268 1.000
NCAAW 2012-2013 0.788 #13/16 0.556 4046 1.000
NCAAW 2011-2012 0.800 #13/16 0.544 3942 0.250
NCAAW 2010-2011 0.804 #12/16 0.541 4019 0.375
NCAAW 2009-2010 0.782 #13/16 0.560 4042 -
NCAAW 2008-2009 0.791 #13/16 0.554 3969 1.000
NCAAW 2007-2008 0.801 #12/16 0.545 4036 0.000
NCAAW 2006-2007 0.793 #14/16 0.554 3823 0.500
NCAAW 2005-2006 0.781 #13/16 0.563 4126 -
NCAAW 2004-2005 0.788 #13/16 0.556 3807 0.667
NCAAMD3 2025-2026 0.779 #13/16 0.565 3977 -
NCAAMD3 2024-2025 0.762 #13/16 0.579 3998 -
NCAAMD3 2023-2024 0.774 #12/16 0.569 4141 0.500
NCAAMD3 2022-2023 0.780 #12/16 0.564 3688 0.500
NCAAMD3 2021-2022 0.773 #13/16 0.573 3282 -
NCAAMD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD3 2019-2020 0.776 #10/16 0.569 3910 0.761
NCAAMD3 2018-2019 0.779 #10/16 0.568 3741 0.500
NCAAMD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD3 2016-2017 0.761 #10/16 0.581 3460 -
NCAAMD3 2015-2016 0.739 #11/16 0.599 2779 -
NCAAMD3 2014-2015 0.765 #10/16 0.578 2420 0.500
NCAAMD3 2013-2014 0.793 #10/16 0.552 3043 1.000
NCAAMD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD2 2025-2026 0.766 #11/16 0.576 3618 -
NCAAMD2 2024-2025 0.729 #14/16 0.608 3783 0.700
NCAAMD2 2023-2024 0.750 #13/16 0.586 3570 1.000
NCAAMD2 2022-2023 0.755 #10/16 0.583 3518 1.000
NCAAMD2 2021-2022 0.761 #10/16 0.581 2886 0.583
NCAAMD2 2020-2021 0.724 #13/16 0.621 1531 0.800
NCAAMD2 2019-2020 0.752 #12/16 0.588 3557 0.810
NCAAMD2 2018-2019 0.762 #12/16 0.580 3572 0.917
NCAAMD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD2 2016-2017 0.768 #10/16 0.576 3475 1.000
NCAAMD2 2015-2016 0.729 #12/16 0.606 3264 1.000
NCAAMD2 2014-2015 0.755 #10/16 0.582 1991 0.833
NCAAMD2 2013-2014 0.736 #12/16 0.609 1496 1.000
NCAAMD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAM 2025-2026 0.746 #12/17 0.590 4785 0.667
NCAAM 2024-2025 0.750 #12/16 0.592 4786 0.486
NCAAM 2023-2024 0.736 #12/16 0.602 4710 0.750
NCAAM 2022-2023 0.733 #12/17 0.605 4632 0.889
NCAAM 2021-2022 0.756 #12/16 0.587 4445 0.500
NCAAM 2020-2021 0.720 #11/16 0.613 3016 0.667
NCAAM 2019-2020 0.744 #11/16 0.597 4300 0.726
NCAAM 2018-2019 0.746 #12/16 0.591 4657 0.482
NCAAM 2017-2018 0.751 #12/16 0.589 4294 0.400
NCAAM 2016-2017 0.759 #12/16 0.586 4269 0.562
NCAAM 2015-2016 0.755 #12/16 0.588 4277 0.800
NCAAM 2014-2015 0.755 #12/16 0.589 4263 0.595
NCAAM 2013-2014 0.749 #12/16 0.594 4368 0.431
NCAAM 2012-2013 0.761 #12/16 0.581 4337 0.750
NCAAM 2011-2012 0.777 #12/16 0.570 4132 0.800
NCAAM 2010-2011 0.756 #12/16 0.583 4073 0.300
NCAAM 2009-2010 0.773 #12/16 0.574 4426 0.875
NCAAM 2008-2009 0.754 #12/16 0.585 4483 0.750
NCAAM 2007-2008 0.762 #12/16 0.579 4478 0.594
NCAAM 2006-2007 0.749 #12/16 0.593 4342 0.750
NCAAM 2005-2006 0.752 #12/16 0.591 4309 0.667
NCAAM 2004-2005 0.748 #12/16 0.593 3964 0.444
NCAAM 2003-2004 0.754 #12/16 0.587 3911 0.800
NCAAM 2002-2003 0.746 #12/16 0.597 3929 0.250
NCAAM 2001-2002 0.748 #12/16 0.592 3897 0.667
NCAAM 2000-2001 0.746 #12/16 0.594 3825 0.750
NCAAM 1999-2000 0.760 #11/16 0.583 3840 0.917
NCAAM 1998-1999 0.747 #12/16 0.594 3712 0.833
NCAAM 1997-1998 0.743 #13/16 0.597 3735 0.333
NCAAM 1996-1997 0.745 #12/16 0.593 3600 0.417
NCAAM 1995-1996 0.740 #13/16 0.599 3534 0.833
NCAAM 1994-1995 0.752 #12/16 0.587 3501 0.500
NCAAM 1993-1994 0.755 #12/16 0.582 3517 0.833
NCAAM 1992-1993 0.750 #12/16 0.591 3539 0.750
NCAAM 1991-1992 0.759 #13/16 0.586 3587 0.500
NCAAM 1990-1991 0.745 #13/16 0.595 3470 0.250
NCAAM 1989-1990 0.760 #12/16 0.582 3426 -
NCAAM 1988-1989 0.751 #13/16 0.591 3423 0.333
NBA 2025-2026 0.733 #8/16 0.612 1134 0.500
NBA 2024-2025 0.708 #7/16 0.621 1118 0.500
NBA 2023-2024 0.709 #10/16 0.621 1172 0.500
NBA 2022-2023 0.635 #11/16 0.666 1162 -
NBA 2021-2022 0.685 #11/17 0.643 1150 -
NBA 2020-2021 0.681 #10/16 0.643 1012 -
NBA 2019-2020 0.681 #10/17 0.632 955 0.500
NBA 2018-2019 0.681 #12/17 0.643 1146 0.500
NBA 2017-2018 0.689 #12/16 0.638 1136 -
NBA 2016-2017 0.666 #10/16 0.648 1157 0.500
NBA 2015-2016 0.726 #11/16 0.612 1115 -
NBA 2014-2015 0.727 #8/16 0.615 1153 -
NBA 2013-2014 0.702 #14/16 0.631 1118 -
NBA 2012-2013 0.708 #12/16 0.629 1145 0.500
NBA 2011-2012 0.682 #11/16 0.635 859 -
NBA 2010-2011 0.726 #12/16 0.620 1118 -
NBA 2009-2010 0.713 #13/16 0.626 1140 0.500
NBA 2008-2009 0.740 #10/16 0.610 1118 0.500
NBA 2007-2008 0.717 #12/16 0.620 1160 0.500
NBA 2006-2007 0.648 #14/16 0.656 1139 -
NBA 2005-2006 0.665 #10/16 0.652 1164 -
NBA 2004-2005 0.701 #12/16 0.633 1144 0.500
NBA 2003-2004 0.685 #12/16 0.644 1120 -
NBA 2002-2003 0.674 #13/16 0.646 1084 0.500
NBA 2001-2002 0.674 #9/16 0.649 1096 -
NBA 2000-2001 0.703 #13/16 0.628 1069 -
NBA 1999-2000 0.708 #10/16 0.622 1090 0.500
NBA 1998-1999 0.714 #9/16 0.627 621 0.500
NBA 1997-1998 0.767 #11/16 0.592 1087 0.500
NBA 1996-1997 0.751 #14/16 0.599 1104 0.500
GLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.625 #13/17 0.673 452 0.667
GLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.596 #15/16 0.685 393 0.500
GLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.628 #7/17 0.663 378 0.500
GLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.650 #10/17 0.659 352 0.750
GLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.626 #3/17 0.670 348 -
GLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.632 #5/17 0.710 18 0.632
GLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.624 #7/17 0.669 459 0.484
GLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.617 #12/17 0.674 583 0.500
GLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.572 #9/17 0.692 510 1.000
GLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.659 #8/17 0.654 487 0.500
GLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.668 #7/17 0.652 430 0.500
GLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.670 #14/17 0.647 394 1.000
GLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.583 #14/17 0.690 372 1.000
GLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.623 #14/17 0.670 350 -
GLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.605 #12/17 0.683 346 0.667
GLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.704 #10/17 0.632 352 0.500
GLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.681 #14/17 0.635 344 1.000
GLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.609 #8/17 0.679 337 1.000
GLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.709 #12/17 0.625 299 0.750
GLEAGUE 2006-2007 0.780 #10/16 0.566 252 -
GLEAGUE 2005-2006 0.776 #8/17 0.566 165 -
GLEAGUE 2004-2005 0.908 #9/16 0.418 119 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2026-2027 0.708 #8/17 0.621 30 0.656
EUROLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.616 #14/17 0.674 342 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.649 #9/17 0.649 285 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.671 #11/17 0.647 287 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.601 #12/17 0.680 283 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.640 #8/17 0.666 254 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.636 #11/17 0.659 290 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.698 #9/17 0.634 216 0.661
EUROLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.753 #11/17 0.598 220 -
EUROLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.643 #11/17 0.668 220 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.656 #11/17 0.658 219 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.668 #10/17 0.653 202 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.721 #12/17 0.616 203 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.718 #11/17 0.618 205 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.713 #13/17 0.619 205 -
EUROLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.754 #11/17 0.588 152 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.658 #9/17 0.658 153 0.750
EUROLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.715 #9/17 0.614 152 -
EUROLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.715 #13/17 0.610 152 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.721 #10/17 0.609 195 1.000
EUROCUP 2026-2027 0.775 #7/17 0.597 32 0.935
EUROCUP 2025-2026 0.728 #3/17 0.612 161 -
EUROCUP 2024-2025 0.704 #5/17 0.653 156 -
EUROCUP 2023-2024 0.740 #12/17 0.593 156 -
EUROCUP 2022-2023 0.692 #13/17 0.635 155 -
EUROCUP 2021-2022 0.657 #10/17 0.652 149 -
EUROCUP 2020-2021 0.717 #9/17 0.604 140 -
EUROCUP 2019-2020 0.558 #14/17 0.695 120 0.533
EUROCUP 2018-2019 0.757 #13/17 0.601 150 0.500
EUROCUP 2017-2018 0.745 #8/17 0.599 136 -
EUROCUP 2016-2017 0.707 #13/17 0.616 114 -
EUROCUP 2015-2016 0.667 #7/17 0.672 226 0.500
EUROCUP 2014-2015 0.679 #10/17 0.643 226 -
EUROCUP 2013-2014 0.601 #14/17 0.703 262 -
EUROCUP 2012-2013 0.590 #3/17 0.687 93 -
EUROCUP 2011-2012 0.676 #13/17 0.643 92 0.000
EUROCUP 2010-2011 0.606 #17/17 0.687 93 1.000
EUROCUP 2009-2010 0.589 #13/17 0.688 92 0.667
EUROCUP 2008-2009 0.681 #11/17 0.643 102 0.417
EUROCUP 2007-2008 0.735 #10/17 0.606 245 0.938