Avg Margin Baseline
Predict from simple average scoring margin in the training window.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AvgMarg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
Training-only average margin baseline. Another cheap sanity check for whether a richer team model adds signal beyond raw per-game margin.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
Held-out game predictions
No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season.
League × Season Summary
Avg Margin Baseline in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.888 | #15/17 | 0.421 | 709 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.918 | #15/17 | 0.429 | 65 | - |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.968 | #14/17 | 0.290 | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.936 | #14/17 | 0.344 | 89 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 0.897 | #15/17 | 0.432 | 76 | - |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 0.843 | #14/17 | 0.503 | 63 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 0.973 | #14/17 | 0.234 | 45 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 0.857 | #15/17 | 0.469 | 34 | - |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 0.935 | #15/17 | 0.398 | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 0.899 | #15/17 | 0.417 | 56 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 0.819 | #16/17 | 0.534 | 53 | - |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 0.970 | #13/17 | 0.281 | 40 | - |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 0.855 | #13/17 | 0.534 | 44 | - |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 0.835 | #15/17 | 0.519 | 77 | - |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 0.876 | #11/17 | 0.436 | 70 | - |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 0.791 | #5/17 | 0.507 | 38 | - |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 0.893 | #14/17 | 0.415 | 46 | - |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 0.951 | #10/17 | 0.358 | 68 | - |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 0.815 | #11/17 | 0.506 | 30 | - |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 0.836 | #15/17 | 0.447 | 27 | - |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 0.967 | #6/17 | 0.272 | 29 | - |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 0.901 | #10/17 | 0.370 | 27 | - |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.825 | #15/17 | 0.526 | 878 | 0.583 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.801 | #15/17 | 0.556 | 972 | 0.500 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.776 | #10/12 | 0.570 | 1015 | 0.500 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.825 | #7/17 | 0.427 | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.922 | #13/17 | 0.443 | 62 | - |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.000 | #17/17 | 0.889 | 6 | - |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.750 | #13/17 | 0.630 | 25 | - |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.795 | #15/17 | 0.466 | 23 | - |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.745 | #16/17 | 0.582 | 53 | - |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | - | - | 0.771 | 2 | - |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.733 | #11/17 | 0.597 | 19 | - |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.819 | #9/17 | 0.530 | 18 | - |