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Team model

Avg Margin Baseline

Predict from simple average scoring margin in the training window.

Status implemented Short Name AvgMarg
Rating Style probability Where Shown model performance

Model Card

Training-only average margin baseline. Another cheap sanity check for whether a richer team model adds signal beyond raw per-game margin.

Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. The prediction protocol was not recorded for this evaluation. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.

Full-season AUC 0.763 (#10 of 11) ยท 3578 games
Full-season log loss 0.579
Final-week AUC - ยท 1 games

Held-out game predictions

Weekly out-of-sample games in the comparable full-season cohort. Each point is a game: the predicted probability that team 1 wins against team 1's actual margin, so a surprise sits high-left or low-right. Plot: 400 of 3578 games (up to 25 largest errors and an even sample of the rest); calibration uses all 3578 games. Select a point to inspect its game and prediction; a verified game link appears when available. Browse every game by surprise.

Select a point to inspect its game.

Calibration by predicted probability

Prediction rangeGamesMean predicted win probabilityObserved win rate
0โ€“10%816.2%8.6%
10โ€“20%24415.7%12.3%
20โ€“30%41625.1%26.0%
30โ€“40%49835.3%31.1%
40โ€“50%53844.8%45.2%
50โ€“60%58054.9%54.1%
60โ€“70%48164.9%65.7%
70โ€“80%38474.7%78.1%
80โ€“90%25584.7%84.3%
90โ€“100%10193.8%95.0%

Largest errors

DateGame (team 1 first)ScorePredicted team 1 winActual
2025-11-26Florida Tech vs Ga. Southwestern 69โ€“613.6%1
2025-12-13MSU Denver vs Westminster (UT) 81โ€“704.3%1
2025-12-04Tex. A&M Int'l vs UT Tyler 65โ€“585.0%1
2025-12-06UCCS vs Westminster (UT) 80โ€“796.0%1
2025-11-24Maryville (MO) vs Union (TN) 78โ€“716.5%1
2025-12-06Lewis vs Lincoln (MO) 56โ€“476.5%1
2025-12-03Florida Tech vs Rollins 71โ€“656.7%1
2025-12-13Lubbock Christian vs Cameron 83โ€“8792.0%0
2025-12-10UVA Wise vs Emory & Henry 76โ€“8391.8%0
2025-12-04Central State (OH) Marauders vs Savannah State 65โ€“7191.0%0
2025-11-25AUM vs Florida Tech 79โ€“8390.5%0
2025-12-04Minnesota St. vs Winona St. 75โ€“8390.4%0
2026-01-02Cal Poly Pomona vs San Francisco State 73โ€“7489.5%0
2025-11-26Northeastern St. vs Arkansas Tech Wonder Boys 60โ€“6589.5%0
2025-12-21Georgia College vs Emmanuel (GA) 71โ€“8289.5%0
2025-11-25McKendree vs Central Mo. 67โ€“7589.4%0
2025-12-09Elizabeth City St. vs Shaw 66โ€“6511.2%1
2026-02-04Catawba vs Coker 85โ€“9288.7%0
2025-12-21Assumption vs Caldwell 92โ€“9488.6%0
2025-12-13Edward Waters vs Albany State (GA) Golden 66โ€“6988.5%0
2026-01-31Southeastern Okla. vs Harding 94โ€“8311.6%1
2025-11-25Bentley vs Assumption 79โ€“7711.7%1
2025-11-29Ouachita Baptist vs Delta St. 68โ€“7588.1%0
2025-11-29USC Aiken vs Fayetteville St. 80โ€“8487.8%0
2025-12-16Cedarville vs Point Park 74โ€“8487.8%0

Peers in NCAAMD2 2025-2026

Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.

Model AUC Rank LogLoss AUC final wk Final wk rank
Points Off/Def Recency 0.805 #1 0.550 - -
Margin Recency 0.804 #2 0.547 - -
Points Off/Def 0.804 #3 0.550 - -
Margin 0.804 #4 0.548 - -
Dynamic Bradley-Terry 0.784 #5 0.562 - -
Bradley-Terry 0.781 #6 0.561 - -
Bradley-Terry Recency 0.780 #7 0.563 - -
Elo 0.778 #8 0.569 - -
Pythagorean 0.775 #9 0.567 - -
Avg Margin Baseline 0.763 #10 0.579 - -
Home Team Baseline 0.598 #11 0.674 - -

League ร— Season Summary

Avg Margin Baseline in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.

League Season AUC Rank LogLoss Games AUC final wk
WNBA 2026 0.759 #11/16 0.593 291 0.500
WNBA 2025 0.684 #14/16 0.641 259 -
WNBA 2024 0.743 #12/16 0.603 197 0.500
WNBA 2023 0.740 #12/16 0.596 206 0.500
WNBA 2022 0.688 #6/16 0.624 189 0.500
WNBA 2021 0.709 #6/16 0.616 159 0.500
WNBA 2020 0.744 #1/16 0.578 81 -
WNBA 2019 0.684 #8/16 0.637 185 0.500
WNBA 2018 0.627 #15/16 0.662 166 -
WNBA 2017 0.707 #10/16 0.621 174 0.500
WNBA 2016 0.669 #9/16 0.631 171 0.500
WNBA 2015 0.551 #16/16 0.687 169 0.500
WNBA 2014 0.638 #11/16 0.659 179 -
WNBA 2013 0.662 #10/16 0.650 194 -
WNBA 2012 0.688 #13/16 0.614 179 0.500
WNBA 2011 0.715 #15/16 0.615 183 -
WNBA 2010 0.715 #6/16 0.627 171 -
WNBA 2009 0.560 #15/16 0.693 196 0.500
WNBA 2008 0.596 #15/16 0.676 208 1.000
WNBA 2007 0.547 #15/16 0.689 194 0.500
WNBA 2006 0.678 #15/16 0.642 205 0.500
WNBA 2005 0.696 #14/16 0.633 186 0.500
WNBA 2004 0.530 #16/16 0.700 199 0.500
WNBA 2003 0.608 #13/16 0.669 200 0.500
WNBA 2002 0.611 #12/16 0.673 211 1.000
WNBA 2001 0.712 #11/16 0.631 194 0.917
WNBA 2000 0.749 #14/16 0.592 181 1.000
WNBA 1999 0.627 #14/16 0.669 138 0.667
WNBA 1998 0.793 #11/16 0.565 106 0.850
WNBA 1997 0.600 #11/16 0.671 78 0.667
NCAAWD3 2025-2026 0.827 #10/11 0.508 3457 0.500
NCAAWD3 2024-2025 0.847 #10/11 0.484 4147 0.875
NCAAWD3 2023-2024 0.857 #9/11 0.474 3928 -
NCAAWD3 2022-2023 0.839 #13/16 0.493 3015 0.800
NCAAWD3 2021-2022 0.815 #13/16 0.526 2328 1.000
NCAAWD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 0.948
NCAAWD3 2019-2020 0.831 #13/16 0.506 2953 0.660
NCAAWD3 2018-2019 0.826 #13/16 0.510 2659 0.500
NCAAWD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD3 2016-2017 0.829 #13/16 0.504 2423 -
NCAAWD3 2015-2016 0.814 #13/16 0.531 1888 -
NCAAWD3 2014-2015 0.809 #11/16 0.535 1325 -
NCAAWD3 2013-2014 0.830 #13/16 0.507 2193 0.333
NCAAWD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2025-2026 0.816 #10/11 0.524 3271 0.833
NCAAWD2 2024-2025 0.808 #10/11 0.536 3507 0.867
NCAAWD2 2023-2024 0.796 #10/11 0.546 3440 0.750
NCAAWD2 2022-2023 0.794 #13/16 0.547 3336 -
NCAAWD2 2021-2022 0.798 #13/16 0.543 2624 0.900
NCAAWD2 2020-2021 0.794 #10/16 0.553 1499 -
NCAAWD2 2019-2020 0.815 #13/16 0.524 3154 0.806
NCAAWD2 2018-2019 0.817 #10/16 0.523 3137 0.833
NCAAWD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 -
NCAAWD2 2016-2017 0.812 #10/16 0.529 3208 1.000
NCAAWD2 2015-2016 0.771 #13/16 0.577 1815 -
NCAAWD2 2014-2015 0.774 #11/16 0.571 1508 -
NCAAWD2 2013-2014 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAWD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 0.667
NCAAW 2025-2026 0.814 #13/16 0.526 4740 0.625
NCAAW 2024-2025 0.810 #15/16 0.532 4691 0.980
NCAAW 2023-2024 0.794 #15/16 0.547 4590 0.556
NCAAW 2022-2023 0.795 #14/16 0.547 4508 0.750
NCAAW 2021-2022 0.798 #15/16 0.545 3969 0.750
NCAAW 2020-2021 0.777 #15/16 0.569 2838 0.750
NCAAW 2019-2020 0.794 #14/16 0.549 4254 0.843
NCAAW 2018-2019 0.806 #15/16 0.538 4209 0.600
NCAAW 2017-2018 0.814 #14/16 0.530 4136 0.357
NCAAW 2016-2017 0.795 #14/16 0.547 4117 0.867
NCAAW 2015-2016 0.807 #14/16 0.538 4093 1.000
NCAAW 2014-2015 0.800 #14/16 0.544 4106 0.625
NCAAW 2013-2014 0.789 #14/16 0.554 4268 1.000
NCAAW 2012-2013 0.788 #14/16 0.556 4046 1.000
NCAAW 2011-2012 0.800 #14/16 0.544 3942 0.250
NCAAW 2010-2011 0.804 #14/16 0.541 4019 0.375
NCAAW 2009-2010 0.782 #14/16 0.560 4042 -
NCAAW 2008-2009 0.793 #14/16 0.553 4005 1.000
NCAAW 2007-2008 0.801 #14/16 0.545 4036 0.000
NCAAW 2006-2007 0.795 #15/16 0.552 3896 0.500
NCAAW 2005-2006 0.781 #15/16 0.563 4126 -
NCAAW 2004-2005 0.788 #14/16 0.556 3807 0.667
NCAAMD3 2025-2026 0.778 #10/11 0.566 3963 -
NCAAMD3 2024-2025 0.763 #10/11 0.578 4003 -
NCAAMD3 2023-2024 0.774 #10/11 0.569 4138 0.500
NCAAMD3 2022-2023 0.780 #13/16 0.564 3688 0.500
NCAAMD3 2021-2022 0.773 #13/16 0.573 3282 -
NCAAMD3 2020-2021 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD3 2019-2020 0.776 #10/16 0.569 3910 0.761
NCAAMD3 2018-2019 0.779 #10/16 0.568 3741 0.500
NCAAMD3 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD3 2016-2017 0.761 #10/16 0.581 3460 -
NCAAMD3 2015-2016 0.739 #13/16 0.599 2779 -
NCAAMD3 2014-2015 0.765 #10/16 0.578 2420 0.500
NCAAMD3 2013-2014 0.793 #10/16 0.552 3043 1.000
NCAAMD3 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAMD2 2025-2026 0.763 #10/11 0.579 3578 -
NCAAMD2 2024-2025 0.725 #10/11 0.612 3716 0.700
NCAAMD2 2023-2024 0.746 #10/11 0.591 3510 1.000
NCAAMD2 2022-2023 0.755 #10/16 0.583 3514 1.000
NCAAMD2 2021-2022 0.763 #10/16 0.579 2881 0.583
NCAAMD2 2020-2021 0.724 #14/16 0.621 1531 0.800
NCAAMD2 2019-2020 0.753 #12/16 0.588 3556 0.811
NCAAMD2 2018-2019 0.763 #13/16 0.580 3571 0.917
NCAAMD2 2017-2018 - - - 0 1.000
NCAAMD2 2016-2017 0.768 #10/16 0.576 3474 1.000
NCAAMD2 2015-2016 0.728 #13/16 0.608 3259 1.000
NCAAMD2 2014-2015 0.755 #10/16 0.582 1991 0.833
NCAAMD2 2013-2014 0.736 #13/16 0.609 1496 1.000
NCAAMD2 2012-2013 - - - 0 -
NCAAM 2025-2026 0.746 #15/16 0.590 4785 0.667
NCAAM 2024-2025 0.750 #15/16 0.592 4786 0.486
NCAAM 2023-2024 0.736 #10/11 0.602 4710 0.750
NCAAM 2022-2023 0.733 #15/16 0.605 4632 0.889
NCAAM 2021-2022 0.756 #15/16 0.587 4445 0.500
NCAAM 2020-2021 0.720 #14/16 0.613 3016 0.667
NCAAM 2019-2020 0.744 #14/16 0.597 4300 0.726
NCAAM 2018-2019 0.746 #15/16 0.591 4656 0.482
NCAAM 2017-2018 0.751 #15/16 0.589 4290 0.667
NCAAM 2016-2017 0.759 #15/16 0.586 4268 0.500
NCAAM 2015-2016 0.755 #15/16 0.588 4277 0.800
NCAAM 2014-2015 0.755 #14/16 0.589 4260 0.600
NCAAM 2013-2014 0.749 #15/16 0.594 4367 0.417
NCAAM 2012-2013 0.760 #15/16 0.582 4349 0.900
NCAAM 2011-2012 0.778 #15/16 0.570 4500 0.800
NCAAM 2010-2011 0.757 #15/16 0.583 4488 0.300
NCAAM 2009-2010 0.772 #15/16 0.574 4479 0.875
NCAAM 2008-2009 0.754 #14/16 0.585 4483 0.750
NCAAM 2007-2008 0.762 #14/16 0.579 4478 0.594
NCAAM 2006-2007 0.749 #15/16 0.593 4342 0.750
NCAAM 2005-2006 0.752 #15/16 0.591 4309 0.667
NCAAM 2004-2005 0.748 #14/16 0.593 3964 0.444
NCAAM 2003-2004 0.754 #15/16 0.587 3911 0.800
NCAAM 2002-2003 0.746 #15/16 0.597 3929 0.250
NCAAM 2001-2002 0.748 #15/16 0.592 3897 0.667
NCAAM 2000-2001 0.746 #15/16 0.594 3825 0.750
NCAAM 1999-2000 0.760 #14/16 0.583 3840 0.917
NCAAM 1998-1999 0.747 #15/16 0.594 3712 0.833
NCAAM 1997-1998 0.743 #15/16 0.597 3735 0.333
NCAAM 1996-1997 0.745 #15/16 0.593 3600 0.417
NCAAM 1995-1996 0.740 #15/16 0.599 3534 0.833
NCAAM 1994-1995 0.752 #15/16 0.587 3501 0.500
NCAAM 1993-1994 0.755 #15/16 0.582 3517 0.833
NCAAM 1992-1993 0.750 #15/16 0.591 3539 0.750
NCAAM 1991-1992 0.759 #15/16 0.586 3587 0.500
NCAAM 1990-1991 0.745 #15/16 0.595 3470 0.250
NCAAM 1989-1990 0.760 #15/16 0.582 3426 -
NCAAM 1988-1989 0.751 #14/16 0.591 3423 0.333
NBA 2025-2026 0.733 #5/11 0.612 1130 0.500
NBA 2024-2025 0.709 #12/16 0.620 1117 0.500
NBA 2023-2024 0.709 #13/16 0.620 1171 0.500
NBA 2022-2023 0.635 #13/16 0.666 1162 -
NBA 2021-2022 0.685 #10/16 0.643 1150 -
NBA 2020-2021 0.681 #10/16 0.643 1012 -
NBA 2019-2020 0.681 #12/16 0.632 955 0.500
NBA 2018-2019 0.681 #14/16 0.643 1146 0.500
NBA 2017-2018 0.689 #15/16 0.638 1136 -
NBA 2016-2017 0.666 #13/16 0.648 1157 0.500
NBA 2015-2016 0.726 #14/16 0.612 1115 -
NBA 2014-2015 0.727 #9/16 0.615 1153 -
NBA 2013-2014 0.702 #15/16 0.631 1118 -
NBA 2012-2013 0.708 #12/16 0.629 1145 0.500
NBA 2011-2012 0.682 #14/16 0.635 859 -
NBA 2010-2011 0.726 #10/16 0.620 1118 -
NBA 2009-2010 0.713 #13/16 0.626 1140 0.500
NBA 2008-2009 0.740 #10/16 0.610 1118 0.500
NBA 2007-2008 0.717 #14/16 0.620 1160 0.500
NBA 2006-2007 0.648 #15/16 0.656 1139 -
NBA 2005-2006 0.665 #12/16 0.652 1164 -
NBA 2004-2005 0.701 #13/16 0.633 1144 0.500
NBA 2003-2004 0.685 #12/16 0.644 1120 -
NBA 2002-2003 0.674 #13/16 0.646 1084 0.500
NBA 2001-2002 0.674 #9/16 0.649 1096 -
NBA 2000-2001 0.703 #14/16 0.628 1069 -
NBA 1999-2000 0.708 #13/16 0.622 1090 0.500
NBA 1998-1999 0.714 #9/16 0.627 621 0.500
NBA 1997-1998 0.767 #14/16 0.592 1087 0.500
NBA 1996-1997 0.751 #14/16 0.599 1104 0.500
GLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.625 #8/11 0.673 452 0.667
GLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.596 #10/11 0.685 393 0.500
GLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.628 #6/11 0.663 378 0.500
GLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.650 #9/16 0.659 352 0.750
GLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.626 #7/16 0.670 348 -
GLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.632 #3/16 0.710 18 0.632
GLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.624 #4/16 0.669 459 0.484
GLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.617 #11/16 0.674 583 0.500
GLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.572 #10/16 0.692 510 1.000
GLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.659 #6/16 0.654 487 0.500
GLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.668 #5/16 0.652 430 0.500
GLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.670 #14/16 0.647 394 1.000
GLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.583 #15/16 0.690 372 1.000
GLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.623 #12/16 0.670 350 -
GLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.605 #11/16 0.683 346 0.667
GLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.704 #11/16 0.632 352 0.500
GLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.681 #14/16 0.635 344 1.000
GLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.609 #8/16 0.679 337 1.000
GLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.709 #12/16 0.625 299 0.750
GLEAGUE 2006-2007 0.780 #6/16 0.566 252 -
GLEAGUE 2005-2006 0.776 #7/16 0.566 165 -
GLEAGUE 2004-2005 0.908 #8/16 0.418 119 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2026-2027 0.693 #2/11 0.630 50 0.667
EUROLEAGUE 2025-2026 0.616 #11/11 0.674 342 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2024-2025 0.649 #10/11 0.649 285 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2023-2024 0.671 #10/11 0.647 287 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2022-2023 0.601 #14/16 0.680 283 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2021-2022 0.640 #10/16 0.666 254 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2020-2021 0.636 #15/16 0.659 290 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2019-2020 0.698 #14/16 0.634 216 0.661
EUROLEAGUE 2018-2019 0.753 #10/16 0.598 220 -
EUROLEAGUE 2017-2018 0.643 #15/16 0.668 220 0.250
EUROLEAGUE 2016-2017 0.656 #13/16 0.658 219 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2015-2016 0.668 #13/16 0.653 202 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2014-2015 0.721 #15/16 0.616 203 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2013-2014 0.718 #15/16 0.618 205 0.333
EUROLEAGUE 2012-2013 0.713 #15/16 0.619 205 -
EUROLEAGUE 2011-2012 0.754 #12/16 0.588 152 0.000
EUROLEAGUE 2010-2011 0.658 #13/16 0.658 153 0.750
EUROLEAGUE 2009-2010 0.715 #13/16 0.614 152 -
EUROLEAGUE 2008-2009 0.715 #13/16 0.610 152 1.000
EUROLEAGUE 2007-2008 0.721 #9/16 0.609 195 1.000
EUROCUP 2026-2027 0.803 #6/11 0.542 48 0.984
EUROCUP 2025-2026 0.728 #1/11 0.612 161 -
EUROCUP 2024-2025 0.704 #4/11 0.653 156 -
EUROCUP 2023-2024 0.740 #5/11 0.593 156 -
EUROCUP 2022-2023 0.692 #15/16 0.635 155 -
EUROCUP 2021-2022 0.657 #13/16 0.652 149 -
EUROCUP 2020-2021 0.717 #6/16 0.604 140 -
EUROCUP 2019-2020 0.558 #14/16 0.695 120 0.533
EUROCUP 2018-2019 0.757 #9/16 0.601 150 0.500
EUROCUP 2017-2018 0.745 #9/16 0.599 136 -
EUROCUP 2016-2017 0.707 #12/16 0.616 114 -
EUROCUP 2015-2016 0.667 #11/16 0.672 226 0.500
EUROCUP 2014-2015 0.679 #15/16 0.643 226 -
EUROCUP 2013-2014 0.601 #14/16 0.703 262 -
EUROCUP 2012-2013 0.590 #4/16 0.687 93 -
EUROCUP 2011-2012 0.676 #12/16 0.643 92 0.000
EUROCUP 2010-2011 0.606 #16/16 0.687 93 1.000
EUROCUP 2009-2010 0.589 #13/16 0.688 92 0.667
EUROCUP 2008-2009 0.681 #11/16 0.643 102 0.417
EUROCUP 2007-2008 0.735 #9/16 0.606 245 0.938