Avg Margin Baseline
Predict from simple average scoring margin in the training window.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AvgMarg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
Training-only average margin baseline. Another cheap sanity check for whether a richer team model adds signal beyond raw per-game margin.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.851 (#2) · 2987 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.535 (#12) · 290 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.562 (#5) · 14 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 73.3% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAWD2 2025-2026. The focus line is Avg Margin Baseline. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 14 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4 - Feb 8 | 0.549 | #12/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.495) |
| Jan 28 - Feb 3 | 0.533 | #8/16 | Margin Recency (0.477) |
| Jan 21 - Jan 27 | 0.508 | #10/16 | Margin Recency (0.476) |
| Jan 14 - Jan 20 | 0.523 | #9/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.487) |
| Jan 7 - Jan 13 | 0.489 | #5/16 | Core Ensemble (0.462) |
| Dec 31 - Jan 6 | 0.616 | #10/16 | Dynamic Bradley-Terry (0.576) |
| Dec 24 - Dec 30 | 0.124 | #9/16 | Log Adjusted (0.055) |
| Dec 17 - Dec 23 | 0.579 | #10/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.514) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAWD2 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.484 | #1 | 0.530 | #1 | 14 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.484 | #2 | 0.530 | #2 | 14 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.487 | #4 | 0.532 | #3 | 14 |
| Margin | 0.848 | #3 | 0.492 | #5 | 0.538 | #4 | 14 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.851 | #2 | 0.535 | #12 | 0.562 | #5 | 14 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | - | - | 0.506 | #8 | 0.569 | #6 | 14 |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.858 | #1 | 0.518 | #10 | 0.573 | #7 | 14 |
| Bradley-Terry Recency | - | - | 0.527 | #11 | 0.581 | #8 | 14 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Avg Margin Baseline. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.640 | #10 | 0.654 | #13 | 21 | 0 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.894 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.851 | #2 | 0.535 | #12 | 0.562 | #5 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.843 | #6 | 0.639 | #13 | 0.581 | #11 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.879 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.874 | #1 | 0.560 | #8 | 0.554 | #5 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.784 | #7 | 0.671 | #13 | 0.620 | #11 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.800 | #7 | 0.644 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.752 | #5 | 0.631 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.780 | #1 | 0.632 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.785 | #1 | 0.635 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.812 | #1 | 0.634 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.793 | #1 | 0.631 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.862 | #1 | 0.630 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.777 | #1 | 0.628 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.852 | #1 | 0.629 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.779 | #1 | 0.631 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.856 | #1 | 0.630 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.813 | #1 | 0.629 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.758 | #1 | 0.633 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.809 | #1 | 0.641 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.774 | #1 | 0.645 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.788 | #1 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.780 | #1 | 0.649 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.830 | #1 | 0.649 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.768 | #1 | 0.647 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.777 | #1 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.790 | #1 | 0.649 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.790 | #1 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.765 | #1 | 0.666 | #15 | 0.623 | #13 | 26 | 1 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.686 | #1 | 0.655 | #3 | 0.664 | #4 | 22 | 3 |