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Team model

Avg Margin Baseline

Predict from simple average scoring margin in the training window.

Model Performance Catalog Entry
Status implemented Short Name AvgMarg
Rating Style probability Where Shown model performance

Model Card

Training-only average margin baseline. Another cheap sanity check for whether a richer team model adds signal beyond raw per-game margin.

Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.