Avg Margin Baseline
Predict from simple average scoring margin in the training window.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AvgMarg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | probability | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
Training-only average margin baseline. Another cheap sanity check for whether a richer team model adds signal beyond raw per-game margin.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: All Games. All scored games in the selected league and season. AP Poll is excluded here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.784 (#7) · 5361 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | 0.671 (#13) · 13 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | 0.620 (#11) · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 68.0% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAM 2025-2026. The focus line is Avg Margin Baseline. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1 - Apr 6 | 0.671 | #13/16 | Log Adjusted (0.537) |
| Mar 25 - Mar 31 | 0.617 | #5/16 | Log Adjusted (0.600) |
| Mar 18 - Mar 24 | 0.622 | #12/16 | Adjusted Efficiency (0.447) |
| Mar 11 - Mar 17 | 0.624 | #10/16 | Margin Recency (0.599) |
| Mar 4 - Mar 10 | 0.614 | #13/16 | Core Ensemble (0.587) |
| Feb 25 - Mar 3 | 0.608 | #9/16 | Points Off/Def Recency (0.578) |
| Feb 18 - Feb 24 | 0.618 | #9/16 | Margin (0.590) |
| Feb 11 - Feb 17 | 0.630 | #8/16 | Recency Ensemble (0.614) |
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAM 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 0.822 | #2 | 0.577 | #4 | 0.548 | #1 | 22 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.620 | #6 | 0.551 | #2 | 22 |
| Recency Ensemble | - | - | 0.637 | #7 | 0.553 | #3 | 22 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.641 | #8 | 0.554 | #4 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.812 | #5 | 0.579 | #5 | 0.561 | #5 | 22 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.784 | #7 | 0.671 | #13 | 0.620 | #11 | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for Avg Margin Baseline. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WNBA | 2025 | - | - | 0.640 | #10 | 0.654 | #13 | 21 | 0 |
| NCAAWD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.894 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAWD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.850 | #2 | 0.535 | #12 | 0.562 | #5 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.843 | #6 | 0.639 | #13 | 0.581 | #11 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAMD3 | 2025-2026 | 0.879 | #6 | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAMD2 | 2025-2026 | 0.874 | #1 | 0.560 | #8 | 0.554 | #5 | 14 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.784 | #7 | 0.671 | #13 | 0.620 | #11 | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.800 | #7 | 0.644 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.752 | #5 | 0.631 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.780 | #1 | 0.632 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2021-2022 | 0.785 | #1 | 0.635 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2020-2021 | 0.812 | #1 | 0.634 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2019-2020 | 0.793 | #1 | 0.631 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.862 | #1 | 0.630 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.777 | #1 | 0.628 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2016-2017 | 0.852 | #1 | 0.629 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | 0.779 | #1 | 0.631 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.856 | #1 | 0.630 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | 0.813 | #1 | 0.629 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | 0.758 | #1 | 0.633 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.809 | #1 | 0.641 | #2 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.774 | #1 | 0.645 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | 0.788 | #1 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2008-2009 | 0.780 | #1 | 0.649 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2007-2008 | 0.830 | #1 | 0.649 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | 0.768 | #1 | 0.647 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.777 | #1 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.790 | #1 | 0.649 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2003-2004 | 0.790 | #1 | 0.648 | #3 | - | - | 0 | 0 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | 0.765 | #1 | 0.612 | #15 | 0.626 | #13 | 26 | 1 |
| GLEAGUE | 2025-2026 | 0.686 | #1 | 0.655 | #3 | 0.664 | #4 | 22 | 3 |