Assists RAPM
Ridge-regularized lineup regression of assists per 100 possessions.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | Ast RAPM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | impact | Where Shown | player pages, players leaderboard |
Model Card
RAPM on the per-segment margin of assists (own minus opponent per 100 possessions), fit only on games whose play-by-play assists equal the box exactly. The ridge penalty is chosen by game-level cross-validation. Positive values mean a player's minutes raise their team's assists relative to the opponent's. Held-out check (date split: fit before a date, score later segments; ncaam 2022-23 and 2023-24, ncaaw 2023-24): correlation with the actual per-segment margin 0.110-0.136 for this model, 0.089-0.124 for the event Elo it replaces. Small in absolute terms: a segment holds about one such event.
Validation is computed for team models, APM, RAPM and the event models. This page shows output coverage and site placement for this model.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
Held-out player predictions
Plot Assists RAPM against any counting stat (one point per player, every season with a served list).
No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the event models.
Stat RAPM or event Elo, per season
Each season serves one method for this stat: stat RAPM when its predictions followed the actual per-segment margin better on held-out games (fit before a date, scored on later segments) by more than two paired standard errors; within that the two are tied and the event Elo serves. Correlations are small in absolute terms; a segment holds about one such event.
| League | Season | Serves | Stat RAPM | Event Elo | Paired SE | Held-out segments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | event Elo (within noise (tie)) | 0.099 | 0.097 | 0.0024 | 73983 |
| NCAAM | 2015-2016 | event Elo (within noise (tie)) | 0.097 | 0.097 | 0.0035 | 56688 |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | stat RAPM | 0.093 | 0.085 | 0.0035 | 57628 |
| NCAAM | 2013-2014 | stat RAPM | 0.093 | 0.086 | 0.0031 | 60438 |
| NCAAM | 2012-2013 | event Elo (within noise (tie)) | 0.094 | 0.096 | 0.0025 | 54522 |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | stat RAPM (within noise (tie); stat RAPM served under the earlier rule) | 0.080 | 0.076 | 0.0032 | 55010 |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | stat RAPM | 0.088 | 0.071 | 0.0038 | 52520 |
| NCAAM | 2009-2010 | event Elo (within noise (tie)) | 0.090 | 0.085 | 0.0029 | 58837 |
| NBA | 2025-2026 | stat RAPM | 0.091 | 0.072 | 0.0045 | 16857 |
Output Coverage
Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).