🐻⬇️🏀

Model Card

Unregularized weighted lineup regression can be unstable, especially for players who share lineups. The fit uses a minimum-norm solution, then centers on published players by minutes. Segment outcomes are per 100 possessions, weighted by the square root of possessions, and scaled by 0.70 to per 40 minutes.

Validation here is out of sample. From two weeks into each season, every week's lineups are predicted by a fit on the season's earlier play, with the served settings; each player's point is the predicted and actual margin per 100 possessions of the held-out play the player was on the floor for.

Selected League / Season

Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.

Held-out player predictions

Plot Adjusted Plus/Minus against any counting stat (one point per player; choose any season with a served list).

No current held-out results for this selection. Held-out player validation covers APM, RAPM and the Box Elo forms.

Output Coverage

Rows in each model's current published run (or legacy rows where no run is selected).