AP Poll
Human ranking baseline for games involving a ranked team.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | rank | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
AP Poll comparison baseline for D1 NCAA only. It is treated as an ordinal ranking signal, not a calibrated probability model. On validation pages it only appears in the ranked-games scope, where every model is re-evaluated on games involving at least one ranked team.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
| Full-season AUC | 0.875 (#14 of 18) · 709 games |
|---|---|
| Full-season log loss | - |
| Final-week AUC | 0.667 (#5) · 5 games |
Peers in NCAAW 2025-2026
Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.
| Model | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | AUC final wk | Final wk rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin Recency | 0.928 | #1 | 0.353 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Margin | 0.927 | #2 | 0.353 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.925 | #3 | 0.361 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | 0.923 | #4 | 0.372 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.922 | #5 | 0.378 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.922 | #6 | 0.377 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Core Ensemble | 0.921 | #7 | 0.364 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Recency Ensemble | 0.920 | #8 | 0.365 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | 0.911 | #9 | 0.383 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Elo | 0.901 | #10 | 0.393 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.888 | #11 | 0.421 | 0.500 | #18 |
| Efficiency | 0.888 | #12 | 0.475 | 0.667 | #5 |
| Pythagorean | 0.880 | #13 | 0.546 | 0.667 | #5 |
| AP Poll | 0.875 | #14 | - | 0.667 | #5 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | 0.875 | #15 | 0.456 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.874 | #16 | 0.467 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Bradley-Terry Recency | 0.856 | #17 | 0.504 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Home Team Baseline | 0.642 | #18 | 0.656 | 0.750 | #4 |
League × Season Summary
AP Poll in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.875 | #14/18 | - | 709 | 0.667 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.875 | #17/18 | - | 65 | - |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.954 | #15/18 | - | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.895 | #17/18 | - | 89 | 0.250 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 0.874 | #16/17 | - | 75 | - |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 0.770 | #16/17 | - | 63 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 1.000 | #1/17 | - | 45 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 0.711 | #16/17 | - | 34 | - |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 0.738 | #16/17 | - | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 0.859 | #15/17 | - | 56 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 0.891 | #14/17 | - | 53 | - |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 0.910 | #16/17 | - | 40 | - |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 0.738 | #16/17 | - | 44 | - |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 0.732 | #16/17 | - | 77 | - |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 0.768 | #16/17 | - | 70 | - |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 0.604 | #17/17 | - | 38 | - |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 0.787 | #16/17 | - | 46 | - |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 0.831 | #16/17 | - | 68 | - |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 0.672 | #17/17 | - | 30 | - |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 0.724 | #16/17 | - | 27 | - |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 0.819 | #16/17 | - | 29 | - |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 0.858 | #16/17 | - | 27 | - |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.811 | #16/18 | - | 878 | 0.958 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.761 | #16/17 | - | 972 | 0.500 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.733 | #16/17 | - | 1015 | 0.625 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.579 | #18/18 | - | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.788 | #16/17 | - | 62 | - |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.500 | #2/17 | - | 6 | - |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.549 | #17/17 | - | 25 | - |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.757 | #16/17 | - | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.780 | #12/17 | - | 51 | - |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | - | - | - | 2 | - |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.728 | #11/17 | - | 19 | - |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.708 | #16/17 | - | 18 | - |