AP Poll
Human ranking baseline for games involving a ranked team.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | rank | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
AP Poll comparison baseline for D1 NCAA only. It is treated as an ordinal ranking signal, not a calibrated probability model. On validation pages it only appears in the ranked-games scope, where every model is re-evaluated on games involving at least one ranked team.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
Held-out game predictions
No comparable held-out evaluation is available for the selected league and season.
League × Season Summary
AP Poll in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.875 | #16/17 | - | 709 | 0.667 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.875 | #16/17 | - | 65 | - |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.954 | #15/17 | - | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.895 | #16/17 | - | 89 | 0.250 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 0.875 | #16/17 | - | 76 | - |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 0.770 | #16/17 | - | 63 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 1.000 | #1/17 | - | 45 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 0.711 | #16/17 | - | 34 | - |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 0.738 | #16/17 | - | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 0.859 | #16/17 | - | 56 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 0.891 | #14/17 | - | 53 | - |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 0.910 | #16/17 | - | 40 | - |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 0.738 | #16/17 | - | 44 | - |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 0.732 | #16/17 | - | 77 | - |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 0.768 | #16/17 | - | 70 | - |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 0.604 | #17/17 | - | 38 | - |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 0.787 | #16/17 | - | 46 | - |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 0.831 | #16/17 | - | 68 | - |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 0.672 | #17/17 | - | 30 | - |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 0.724 | #16/17 | - | 27 | - |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 0.819 | #16/17 | - | 29 | - |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 0.858 | #16/17 | - | 27 | - |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.811 | #16/17 | - | 878 | 0.958 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.761 | #16/17 | - | 972 | 0.500 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.733 | #11/12 | - | 1015 | 0.625 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.579 | #17/17 | - | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.788 | #16/17 | - | 62 | - |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.500 | #2/17 | - | 6 | - |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.549 | #17/17 | - | 25 | - |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.768 | #16/17 | - | 23 | - |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.776 | #12/17 | - | 53 | - |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | - | - | - | 2 | - |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.728 | #14/17 | - | 19 | - |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.708 | #16/17 | - | 18 | - |