AP Poll
Human ranking baseline for games involving a ranked team.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | rank | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
AP Poll comparison baseline for D1 NCAA only. It is treated as an ordinal ranking signal, not a calibrated probability model. On validation pages it only appears in the ranked-games scope, where every model is re-evaluated on games involving at least one ranked team.
Validation here is out of sample: each week of a season is predicted by models refit on the season's earlier games, and every model is scored on the same games. The prediction protocol was not recorded for this evaluation. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Change league with the League selector at the top of the page.
| Full-season AUC | 0.811 (#16 of 17) · 878 games |
|---|---|
| Full-season log loss | - |
| Final-week AUC | 0.958 (#10) · 7 games |
Held-out game predictions
AP Poll is an ordinal ranking, not a win probability.
Peers in NCAAM 2025-2026
Every model on the same games, ordered by full-season AUC.
| Model | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | AUC final wk | Final wk rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points Off/Def | 0.867 | #1 | 0.478 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Points Off/Def Recency | 0.866 | #2 | 0.481 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Margin | 0.866 | #3 | 0.474 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Margin Recency | 0.865 | #4 | 0.475 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | 0.864 | #5 | 0.461 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Core Ensemble | 0.856 | #6 | 0.478 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Recency Ensemble | 0.855 | #7 | 0.478 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 0.854 | #8 | 0.472 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Log Adjusted | 0.853 | #9 | 0.473 | 1.000 | #1 |
| Elo | 0.851 | #10 | 0.476 | 0.833 | #12 |
| Dynamic Bradley-Terry | 0.844 | #11 | 0.501 | 0.833 | #12 |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.843 | #12 | 0.493 | 0.917 | #11 |
| Pythagorean | 0.838 | #13 | 0.495 | 0.667 | #15 |
| Bradley-Terry Recency | 0.838 | #14 | 0.503 | 0.833 | #12 |
| Avg Margin Baseline | 0.825 | #15 | 0.526 | 0.583 | #17 |
| AP Poll | 0.811 | #16 | - | 0.958 | #10 |
| Home Team Baseline | 0.657 | #17 | 0.650 | 0.667 | #15 |
League × Season Summary
AP Poll in every evaluated league-season; rank among the models on the same games.
| League | Season | AUC | Rank | LogLoss | Games | AUC final wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.875 | #16/17 | - | 709 | 0.667 |
| NCAAW | 2024-2025 | 0.875 | #16/17 | - | 65 | - |
| NCAAW | 2023-2024 | 0.954 | #15/17 | - | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2022-2023 | 0.895 | #16/17 | - | 89 | 0.250 |
| NCAAW | 2021-2022 | 0.875 | #16/17 | - | 76 | - |
| NCAAW | 2020-2021 | 0.770 | #16/17 | - | 63 | 0.500 |
| NCAAW | 2019-2020 | 1.000 | #1/17 | - | 45 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2018-2019 | 0.711 | #16/17 | - | 34 | - |
| NCAAW | 2017-2018 | 0.738 | #16/17 | - | 64 | - |
| NCAAW | 2016-2017 | 0.859 | #16/17 | - | 56 | 1.000 |
| NCAAW | 2015-2016 | 0.891 | #14/17 | - | 53 | - |
| NCAAW | 2014-2015 | 0.910 | #16/17 | - | 40 | - |
| NCAAW | 2013-2014 | 0.738 | #16/17 | - | 44 | - |
| NCAAW | 2012-2013 | 0.732 | #16/17 | - | 77 | - |
| NCAAW | 2011-2012 | 0.768 | #16/17 | - | 70 | - |
| NCAAW | 2010-2011 | 0.604 | #17/17 | - | 38 | - |
| NCAAW | 2009-2010 | 0.787 | #16/17 | - | 46 | - |
| NCAAW | 2008-2009 | 0.831 | #16/17 | - | 68 | - |
| NCAAW | 2007-2008 | 0.672 | #17/17 | - | 30 | - |
| NCAAW | 2006-2007 | 0.724 | #16/17 | - | 27 | - |
| NCAAW | 2005-2006 | 0.819 | #16/17 | - | 29 | - |
| NCAAW | 2004-2005 | 0.858 | #16/17 | - | 27 | - |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.811 | #16/17 | - | 878 | 0.958 |
| NCAAM | 2024-2025 | 0.761 | #16/17 | - | 972 | 0.500 |
| NCAAM | 2023-2024 | 0.733 | #11/12 | - | 1015 | 0.625 |
| NCAAM | 2022-2023 | 0.579 | #17/17 | - | 22 | - |
| NCAAM | 2018-2019 | 0.788 | #16/17 | - | 62 | - |
| NCAAM | 2017-2018 | 0.500 | #2/17 | - | 6 | - |
| NCAAM | 2014-2015 | 0.549 | #17/17 | - | 25 | - |
| NCAAM | 2011-2012 | 0.768 | #16/17 | - | 23 | - |
| NCAAM | 2010-2011 | 0.776 | #12/17 | - | 53 | - |
| NCAAM | 2006-2007 | - | - | - | 2 | - |
| NCAAM | 2005-2006 | 0.728 | #14/17 | - | 19 | - |
| NCAAM | 2004-2005 | 0.708 | #16/17 | - | 18 | - |