AP Poll
Human ranking baseline for games involving a ranked team.
| Status | implemented | Short Name | AP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rating Style | rank | Where Shown | model performance |
Model Card
AP Poll comparison baseline for D1 NCAA only. It is treated as an ordinal ranking signal, not a calibrated probability model. On validation pages it only appears in the ranked-games scope, where every model is re-evaluated on games involving at least one ranked team.
Validation on this page uses stored season-level full-fit rows plus strict weekly rolling holdouts. Rolling ranks are based on average weekly log loss in the selected league/season. Current scope: Ranked Games. Only games where at least one team had an AP Poll rank on game day. All models are re-evaluated on that same subset, and AP Poll joins the comparison set here.
Selected League / Season
Use the selected scope to inspect this model against peers and across rolling weekly holdouts.
| Full Fit AUC | 0.804 (#10) · 831 games |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Holdout Log Loss | - · 5 games |
| Rolling Avg Log Loss | - · 22 windows |
| Window Wins | 0 · 77.6% rolling accuracy |
Full-fit AUC is only available where the older stored-rating batch produced that model for the selected scope. Recency and ensemble families can still have valid 7-day and rolling holdout results even when the full-fit columns are blank.
Rolling Holdout Curves
Selected model plus comparison peers for NCAAM 2025-2026. The focus line is AP Poll. Click legend items to hide/show peers.
Weekly strict holdout log loss. Lower is better. Showing 6 models across 22 windows.
Recent Windows
| Holdout | Log Loss | Rank | Winner |
|---|
Selected Scope Peer Table
Comparison snapshot for NCAAM 2025-2026. Rows are ordered by rolling log-loss rank; full-fit AUC may be blank for models that do not have legacy full-season rows stored for this scope.
| Model | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LogLoss | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margin | 0.878 | #3 | 0.494 | #4 | 0.458 | #1 | 22 |
| Adjusted Context Blend | - | - | 0.463 | #1 | 0.464 | #2 | 22 |
| Margin Recency | - | - | 0.568 | #6 | 0.465 | #3 | 22 |
| Points Off/Def | 0.877 | #4 | 0.507 | #5 | 0.471 | #4 | 22 |
| Core Ensemble | - | - | 0.606 | #9 | 0.472 | #5 | 22 |
| AP Poll | 0.804 | #10 | - | - | - | - | 22 |
League × Season Summary
Cross-scope validation history for AP Poll. Rolling ranks are by average weekly log loss.
| League | Season | Full AUC | AUC Rank | 7d LL | 7d Rank | Rolling LL | Rolling Rank | Windows | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCAAW | 2025-2026 | 0.880 | #10 | - | - | - | - | 22 | 0 |
| NCAAM | 2025-2026 | 0.804 | #10 | - | - | - | - | 22 | 0 |