Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Ball State Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 13.6% | 86.4% | +11.3 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 25.7% | 74.3% | +11.7 | ✓ (1.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 24.6% | 75.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.9% | 77.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Ball State Cardinals +10 (84-74). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crislyn Rose * | 34 | 8-19 | 2-8 | 10-11 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 19 | - |
| Amina Gray * | 27 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | -6 | -3.0 |
| Angela Carroll * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | -6.0 |
| Jermesha Frierson * | 17 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | +3.6 |
| Maya Chocano * | 13 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | +8.0 |
| Monica Marsh | 20 | 5-12 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 3 | -8.2 |
| Audreonia Benson | 20 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 2-7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +3.4 |
| Ta'Niyah Davis | 16 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -12.3 |
| Allyson Ferguson | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jaidyn Elam | 13 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -0.5 |
| Jasmine Jordan | 10 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +9.6 |
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Kingery * | 36 | 10-22 | 4-12 | 9-11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 15 | - |
| Tessa Towers * | 26 | 7-13 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | - |
| Aniss Tagayi * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Karsyn Norman * | 23 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Zhen Verburgt * | 8 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Lilli Barnes | 30 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 10-13 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 25 | -9.8 |
| Faith Walker | 29 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -5.5 |
| Helen Holley | 14 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | -5.9 |
| Giorgia Gorini | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter