Model Predictions
| Model | Toledo Rockets | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 56.5% | 43.5% | -4.3 | ✗ (5.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 65.1% | 34.9% | -6.8 | ✗ (7.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.9% | 43.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 62.5% | 37.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +1 (71-70). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Toledo Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mynor Strong * | 36 | 6-16 | 3-12 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | +9.9 |
| Sean Jones * | 33 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | +2.3 |
| Jaylan Ouwinga * | 30 | 8-17 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | -3.5 |
| Chris Riddle * | 24 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | +18.5 |
| Austin Parks * | 17 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +6.4 |
| Angel Montas Jr. | 26 | 7-16 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 13 | -4.4 |
| Will James Jr. | 16 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -16.0 |
| Jaylohn Allen | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -3.5 |
| Rich Barron | 6 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5 | -9.6 |
| Rashaun Porter | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2.6 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tameron Ferguson * | 32 | 8-10 | 3-5 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 23 | - |
| Layne Taylor * | 30 | 5-13 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | - |
| Amadou Doumbia * | 25 | 2-10 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | - |
| R. Smith * | 23 | 2-12 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Delang Muon * | 19 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Jordan Pyke | 22 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2-6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | - |
| Chaz Watson | 16 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | - |
| Aaron McGee | 16 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 | - |
| Aliou Maiga | 14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Grayson Bennett | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| CJ Geathers | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter