Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Arizona Wildcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.0% | 95.0% | +21.0 | ✓ (1.0 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 8.1% | 91.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 9.6% | 90.4% | +24.7 | ✓ (4.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 6.6% | 93.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 11.9% | 88.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 11.5% | 88.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 10.2% | 89.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arizona Wildcats +20 (104-84). Ratings: 2026-27 ratings to date (they include this game).
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamad Mousa * | 31 | 10-14 | 8-10 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 18 | -6.3 |
| Cayden Ward * | 26 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 3-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 4 | -14.4 |
| Guzman Vasilic * | 26 | 0-6 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -4.9 |
| Austin Goode * | 18 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -8.5 |
| Jess Esso Essis * | 16 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Jason Scott | 17 | 6-8 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | +17.7 |
| Troy Plumtree | 16 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +12.1 |
| Braden Freeman | 14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3.4 |
| Ali Assran | 12 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3.3 |
| Aaron Price Jr. | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jake Davis | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -5.4 |
| Jackson Mosley | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2.1 |
Arizona Wildcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Dixon * | 31 | 4-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | +15.9 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov * | 29 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 25 | +21.7 |
| Caleb Holt * | 23 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 17 | +11.2 |
| Motiejus Krivas * | 23 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 10-12 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 26 | +15.6 |
| Bryce James * | 17 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -8.8 |
| JJ Mandaquit | 22 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1.3 |
| Cameron Holmes | 21 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 | -7.5 |
| Maksim Brnovic | 17 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -6.3 |
| Evan Otten | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -8.4 |
| Ugnius Jarusevicius | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Addison Arnold | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.8 |
* = starter