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New York Liberty 99
@
Las Vegas Aces 104
2026-07-30

Model Predictions

Model New York Liberty Las Vegas Aces Spread Result
Elo 39.6% 60.4% - ✓
Bradley-Terry 36.7% 63.3% - ✓
Margin 36.3% 63.7% +3.1 ✓ (1.9 off)
Pythagorean 45.4% 54.6% - ✓
Efficiency 41.0% 59.0% - ✓
Adjusted Efficiency 42.7% 57.3% - ✓
Log Adjusted 42.7% 57.3% - ✓
Points Off/Def 40.6% 59.4% - ✓

Actual: Las Vegas Aces +5 (104-99). Predictions use season-end ratings.

New York Liberty

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Breanna Stewart * 37 10-20 1-1 5-8 11 1 3 1 26 - -
Sabrina Ionescu * 29 4-7 1-4 6-7 4 5 0 0 15 - -
Rebecca Allen * 27 5-6 3-4 0-0 1 0 0 0 13 - -
Jonquel Jones * 27 2-11 0-4 4-4 7 5 0 0 8 - -
Pauline Astier * 21 8-12 1-3 2-2 1 4 2 0 19 - -
Marine Fauthoux 18 3-5 1-3 2-2 4 1 1 0 9 - -
Rebekah Gardner 15 2-4 0-0 2-2 5 3 2 0 6 - -
Xu Han 14 1-3 1-3 0-0 1 1 1 0 3 - -
Marine Johannes 8 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 - -

Las Vegas Aces

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
Jackie Young * 35 7-11 3-5 12-12 2 9 2 0 29 - -
A'ja Wilson * 35 11-22 1-4 10-11 10 6 1 2 33 - -
Chelsea Gray * 33 6-10 4-6 0-0 3 4 0 0 16 - -
NaLyssa Smith * 19 2-3 0-0 3-4 4 1 0 0 7 - -
Stephanie Talbot * 10 2-3 2-3 0-0 1 2 0 1 6 - -
Jewell Loyd 26 2-8 2-7 0-0 2 0 1 0 6 - -
Brianna Turner 21 2-3 0-0 0-0 3 1 1 1 4 - -
Dana Evans 16 1-4 1-3 0-0 1 2 0 0 3 - -

* = starter