Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Fire | Connecticut Sun | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 52.4% | 47.6% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.6% | 32.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.9% | 52.1% | +0.9 | ✓ (2.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 55.2% | 44.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.2% | 45.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.8% | 52.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Connecticut Sun +3 (90-87). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Fire
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite * | 32 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 8 | +0.3 |
| Bridget Carleton * | 31 | 5-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | -0.4 |
| Megan Gustafson * | 31 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 10 | -1.2 |
| Emily Engstler * | 29 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 18 | +2.6 |
| Sarah Ashlee Barker * | 24 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 6 | -8.4 |
| Karlie Samuelson | 15 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | +1.7 |
| Frieda Buhner | 10 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | -8.8 |
| Serah Williams | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5.2 |
| Nyadiew Puoch | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5.4 |
| Teja Oblak | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | -6.3 |
Connecticut Sun
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlisse Leger-Walker * | 33 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | +5.8 |
| Diamond Miller * | 31 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -4.0 |
| Leila Lacan * | 29 | 6-11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +2.8 |
| Olivia Nelson-Ododa * | 25 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | -7.3 |
| Brittney Griner * | 24 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 20 | +4.6 |
| Aaliyah Edwards | 23 | 9-13 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 18 | +8.2 |
| Kennedy Burke | 13 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1.7 |
| Nell Angloma | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +7.1 |
| Raegan Beers | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4.3 |
* = starter