Model Predictions
| Model | Phoenix Mercury | Minnesota Lynx | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.8% | 81.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 21.3% | 78.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.5% | 75.5% | +12.4 | ✓ (8.4 off) |
| Pythagorean | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.6% | 76.4% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.5% | 76.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.2% | 74.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Lynx +4 (104-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Phoenix Mercury
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyssa Thomas * | 36 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 19 | 22 | +3.0 |
| DeWanna Bonner * | 33 | 6-12 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 17 | -0.1 |
| Kahleah Copper * | 32 | 9-14 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +0.8 |
| Monique Akoa Makani * | 26 | 6-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | +6.0 |
| Noemie Brochant * | 17 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +6.0 |
| Sami Whitcomb | 18 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | -3.9 |
| Valeriane Ayayi | 17 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Lexi Held | 12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +2.2 |
| Marta Suarez | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +0.0 |
Minnesota Lynx
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla McBride * | 35 | 11-17 | 6-11 | 9-9 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 31 | -8.8 |
| Courtney Williams * | 35 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | +3.6 |
| Natasha Howard * | 34 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 | -0.2 |
| Olivia Miles * | 30 | 10-16 | 5-8 | 8-9 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 23 | +5.4 |
| Nia Coffey * | 29 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -2.3 |
| Antonia Delaere | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.9 |
| Anastasiia Olairi Kosu | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Eliska Hamzova | 8 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +1.3 |
| Maya Caldwell | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6.4 |
* = starter