Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | UConn Huskies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.6% | 81.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.4% | 75.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 1.5% | 98.5% | +22.9 | ✓ (1.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.4% | 54.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 11.4% | 88.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UConn Huskies +21 (63-42). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indya Nivar | 37 | 8-15 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 15 | -4.9 |
| Nyla Harris | 36 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | +5.9 |
| Elina Aarnisalo | 35 | 1-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -5 | -6.8 |
| Lanie Grant | 28 | 1-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -8 | -13.3 |
| Nyla Brooks | 27 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3.6 |
| Ciera Toomey | 21 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -4.2 |
| Taissa Queiroz | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.2 |
| Laila Hull | 6 | 0-5 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | -3.9 |
| Taliyah Henderson | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.8 |
UConn Huskies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Strong | 38 | 9-17 | 0-5 | 3-4 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 20 | +20.1 |
| Azzi Fudd | 37 | 4-12 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | +13.9 |
| KK Arnold | 30 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +7.1 |
| Ashlynn Shade | 26 | 1-9 | 0-7 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +12.1 |
| B. Quiñonez | 22 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +12.1 |
| Kayleigh Heckel | 16 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Serah Williams | 13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -0.1 |
| Allie Ziebell | 9 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +6.2 |
| Jana El Alfy | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Caroline Ducharme | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.0 |
* = starter