Model Predictions
| Model | Virginia Cavaliers | Iowa Hawkeyes | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.8% | 90.2% | +14.4 | ✗ (22.4 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.5% | 80.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 10.5% | 89.5% | +11.8 | ✗ (19.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 10.7% | 89.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.9% | 74.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Iowa Hawkeyes -8 (75-83). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kymora Johnson * | 50 | 7-20 | 4-12 | 10-11 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 8 | +25.4 |
| Romi Levy * | 44 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +13.4 |
| Paris Clark * | 42 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 3-5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 20 | +20.4 |
| Sa'Myah Smith * | 28 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | +12.6 |
| Tabitha Amanze * | 27 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | +4.2 |
| Caitlin Weimar | 30 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | +9.1 |
| Adeang Ring | 15 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +13.7 |
| Gabby White | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +5.7 |
| Breona Hurd | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.9 |
| Jillian Brown | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.2 |
Iowa Hawkeyes
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chazadi Wright * | 49 | 8-22 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | -18.2 |
| Hannah Stuelke * | 49 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 1-6 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 27 | -13.6 |
| Taylor Stremlow * | 49 | 2-13 | 1-10 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -13.2 |
| Kylie Feuerbach * | 48 | 1-7 | 1-7 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | -16.5 |
| Ava Heiden * | 36 | 11-22 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 8 | -5.8 |
| Journey Houston | 14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -5.8 |
| Addie Deal | 4 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +3.1 |
| Layla Hays | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2.0 |
* = starter