Model Predictions
| Model | North Dakota State Bison | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 9.7% | 90.3% | +15.4 | ✓ (9.6 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 17.0% | 83.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 2.0% | 98.0% | +21.5 | ✓ (3.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.0% | 99.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 13.5% | 86.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +25 (92-67). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
North Dakota State Bison
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Stefonowicz * | 35 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -2 | -9.3 |
| Trevian Carson * | 34 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | +12.6 |
| Damari Wheeler-Thomas * | 30 | 5-11 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | -8.9 |
| Treyson Anderson * | 19 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 2-6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Markhi Strickland * | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -9.9 |
| Noah Feddersen | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -6.4 |
| Tay Smith | 18 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -15.7 |
| Emil Skytta | 14 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | +11.7 |
| Riley Massey | 9 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -4.1 |
| Riley Saunders | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.8 |
| Caleb Schoenrock | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Max Majerle | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -4.9 |
| Carson Smith | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.8 |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. * | 32 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | +9.4 |
| Carson Cooper * | 30 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 24 | +4.2 |
| Coen Carr * | 28 | 6-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3.5 |
| Jaxon Kohler * | 26 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 13 | +8.4 |
| Jordan Scott * | 24 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | +0.3 |
| Kur Teng | 18 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +10.6 |
| Cameron Ward | 16 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 11 | +14.4 |
| Trey Fort | 12 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | +3.8 |
| Denham Wojcik | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +5.6 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1.5 |
| Nick Sanders | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.9 |
| Brennan Walton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Colin Walton | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.8 |
* = starter