Model Predictions
| Model | Troy Trojans | Ball State Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 46.6% | 53.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.6% | 57.4% | +1.6 | ✓ (0.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.2% | 53.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.7% | 55.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Ball State Cardinals +1 (87-86). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Troy Trojans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Ngnawo | 33 | 7-18 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +1.9 |
| Ashley Baez | 33 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | -4.9 |
| Rachel Leggett | 33 | 4-11 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 19 | -10.4 |
| Zay Dyer | 27 | 7-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | +0.5 |
| Emani Jenkins | 25 | 4-13 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | -4.4 |
| Leilani Guion | 20 | 3-9 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | -3.6 |
| Saniya Jackson | 13 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 11 | +7.7 |
| Detavia Salter | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.4 |
| L. Koricanac | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Kamesha Moore | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Shakirah Edwards | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.9 |
Ball State Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Kingery | 36 | 5-13 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +5.3 |
| Karsyn Norman | 28 | 4-10 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 3 | +10.0 |
| Aniss Tagayi | 26 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 8 | -0.5 |
| Bree Salenbien | 26 | 4-13 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +4.0 |
| Zhen Verburgt | 26 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | +5.2 |
| Tessa Towers | 25 | 9-16 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 14 | +1.6 |
| Alba Caballero | 14 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +4.9 |
| Giorgia Gorini | 13 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2.8 |
| Zuri Ransom | 6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +2.5 |
* = starter