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2026-02-07

Model Predictions

Model Illinois Fighting Illini Michigan State Spartans Spread Result
Elo 38.1% 61.9% -
Bradley-Terry 39.7% 60.3% -
Margin 54.5% 45.5% -1.0 (4.0 off)
Pythagorean 48.8% 51.2% -
Efficiency 50.6% 49.4% -
Adjusted Efficiency 61.8% 38.2% -
Log Adjusted 61.9% 38.1% -
Points Off/Def 50.8% 49.2% -

Actual: Michigan State Spartans +3 (85-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Illinois Fighting Illini

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
K. Wagler 41 2-16 2-8 10-12 6 3 1 0 3 16 7 -
D. Mirkovic 36 5-13 1-5 7-8 6 6 1 1 0 18 19 -
A. Stojakovic 35 8-14 1-2 0-0 7 0 0 0 0 17 10 -
T. Ivisic 29 5-9 2-6 0-1 2 1 1 0 0 12 7 -
J. Davis 29 1-5 1-5 3-3 3 1 2 0 0 6 7 -
B. Humrichous 29 3-6 2-4 0-0 4 2 0 1 0 8 9 -
Z. Ivisic 26 2-8 1-6 0-0 8 0 0 3 1 5 7 -
B. Lee 0 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Fears Jr. 43 7-19 0-3 12-13 3 15 1 0 2 26 24 -
C. Carr 37 4-10 0-2 0-0 8 0 0 1 2 8 5 -
C. Cooper 37 3-4 0-0 3-4 8 1 0 1 0 9 15 -
J. Kohler 35 4-12 3-8 0-0 16 1 1 1 1 11 17 -
J. Scott 28 3-6 1-4 3-4 4 0 1 1 2 10 8 -
C. Ward 18 3-4 0-0 2-2 7 0 0 0 0 8 11 -
K. Teng 16 4-10 2-6 0-0 1 0 0 0 1 10 0 -
T. Fort 7 1-1 1-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 -
J. McCulloch 2 0-1 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -
D. Wojcik 2 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 -

* = starter