Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 54.7% | 45.3% | -1.0 | ✗ (4.0 off) |
| Pythagorean | 48.8% | 51.2% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 68.7% | 31.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 50.7% | 49.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +3 (85-82). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler | 41 | 2-16 | 2-8 | 10-12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 7 | +4.1 |
| David Mirkovic | 36 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 7-8 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 19 | -2.2 |
| Andrej Stojakovic | 35 | 8-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 10 | -1.7 |
| Tomislav Ivisic | 29 | 5-9 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | -4.1 |
| Jake Davis | 29 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Ben Humrichous | 29 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | -5.9 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic | 26 | 2-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | +3.5 |
| Brandon Lee | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Fears Jr. | 43 | 7-19 | 0-3 | 12-13 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 24 | +11.1 |
| Coen Carr | 37 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | -1.7 |
| Carson Cooper | 37 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 | -0.3 |
| Jaxon Kohler | 35 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 | +6.9 |
| Jordan Scott | 28 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +7.1 |
| Cameron Ward | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 11 | +14.3 |
| Kur Teng | 16 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Trey Fort | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +5.9 |
| Jesse McCulloch | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3.0 |
| Denham Wojcik | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.7 |
* = starter