Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois State Redbirds | Valparaiso Beacons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 55.5% | 44.5% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 64.5% | 35.5% | -3.3 | ✗ (9.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Valparaiso Beacons +6 (77-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger | 34 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 13 | -10.2 |
| Chase Walker | 30 | 8-19 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 6 | -0.3 |
| Landon Wolf | 28 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -8.9 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman | 28 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | -0.2 |
| Boden Skunberg | 24 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +6.0 |
| Ty Pence | 19 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -1.2 |
| Landon Moore | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -8.7 |
| Jack Daugherty | 10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -5.5 |
| Brandon Lieb | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7.2 |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Dease | 35 | 8-14 | 3-3 | 9-9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 20 | +8.7 |
| JT Pettigrew | 29 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 9-13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 17 | +5.2 |
| Brody Whitaker | 28 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 2-5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | +5.4 |
| Shon Tupuola | 26 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| Rakim Chaney | 23 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +2.2 |
| Carter Hopoi | 17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +4.8 |
| Mark Brown | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +3.6 |
| Justus McNair | 12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +4.6 |
| Tucker Tornatta | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +7.3 |
| Isaiah Barnes | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -0.8 |
| Kyonte Thomas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.1 |
* = starter