Model Predictions
| Model | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.1% | 77.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 24.6% | 75.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 20.4% | 79.6% | +7.5 | ✓ (17.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 42.2% | 57.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks +25 (90-65). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Ellingsworth * | 23 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -5.5 |
| Christian Harmon * | 21 | 2-9 | 1-8 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | - |
| Aly Tounkara * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5.5 |
| K. Hayman * | 17 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Chandler Jackson * | 16 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | - |
| TJ Caldwell | 27 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Joey Chammaa | 25 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 9-12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 11 | -10.4 |
| Jalen Hampton | 22 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | -7.4 |
| Chudi Dioramma | 17 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -7.7 |
| R. Smith | 12 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -7.5 |
| F. Sylla | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keon Thompson * | 32 | 11-17 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 18 | +11.3 |
| Jerald Colonel * | 28 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 19 | +13.3 |
| Chrishawn Christmas * | 26 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | +17.4 |
| L. Patrick * | 24 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 3-5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10.4 |
| K. Burton * | 15 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +5.6 |
| Narit Chotikavanic | 24 | 5-14 | 4-13 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +7.5 |
| Ahamed Mohammed | 18 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | +1.7 |
| Eltramon Smith Jr. | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4.2 |
| Gediminas Alisas | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Tichyque Musaka | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -0.0 |
| Marcus Scurry | 4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +2.9 |
| Harris Dar | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Christian Green | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Bryceson Melvin | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter