Model Predictions
| Model | St. Bonaventure Bonnies | Dayton Flyers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.3% | 76.7% | +6.5 | ✓ (2.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 23.2% | 76.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 22.7% | 77.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dayton Flyers +4 (75-71). Predictions use season-end ratings.
St. Bonaventure Bonnies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Drake | 31 | 12-20 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 14 | +0.3 |
| M. Pettinelli | 28 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | +0.8 |
| A. Parker | 28 | 6-15 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 12 | -4.4 |
| E. MacDonough | 25 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +1.8 |
| K. Buckley | 20 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2.3 |
| B. Boyd | 19 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8.0 |
| K. Krysztof | 15 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -5.1 |
| O. DiFranco | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1.3 |
| G. Robinson | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| B. Barr-Buday | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -1.6 |
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Leung | 33 | 7-14 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 12 | +0.2 |
| N. Stephens | 33 | 7-12 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 7 | +0.7 |
| N. Lear | 29 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 6-10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5.6 |
| A. Madol | 23 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +3.0 |
| M. O'Riordan | 23 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 18 | +6.9 |
| F. Ibrahim | 17 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -1.1 |
| M. Johnson | 14 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -4.6 |
| S. Dawkins | 11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +9.4 |
| J. Johnson | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +11.9 |
| M.G. Talle | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +0.5 |
* = starter