Model Predictions
| Model | Dayton Flyers | VCU Rams | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 19.4% | 80.6% | +9.2 | ✓ (16.8 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.3% | 75.7% | +6.3 | ✓ (19.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 31.8% | 68.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: VCU Rams +26 (99-73). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Dayton Flyers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett * | 35 | 6-16 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 3 | -14.8 |
| Keonte Jones * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | -16.6 |
| Amal L'Etang * | 31 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 14 | -3.5 |
| Jordan Derkack * | 29 | 3-13 | 1-2 | 8-11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 11 | -17.2 |
| Jacob Conner * | 11 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -10.2 |
| Bryce Heard | 25 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 5-7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | -9.0 |
| Damon Friery | 14 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2.3 |
| Jaiun Simon | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -10.6 |
| Sean Pouedet | 9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1.6 |
| Malcolm Thomas | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -0.4 |
VCU Rams
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadrian Tracey * | 30 | 9-12 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 26 | 17 | +20.5 |
| Lazar Djokovic * | 26 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 7-7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 15 | +26.4 |
| Brandon Jennings * | 24 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 | +24.5 |
| Nyk Lewis * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 8-12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | +10.6 |
| Barry Evans * | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4.4 |
| Terrence Hill Jr. | 28 | 6-10 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 10 | +10.6 |
| Michael Belle | 22 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 15 | +12.4 |
| Tyrell Ward | 20 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 12 | +4.6 |
| Ahmad Nowell | 10 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +0.4 |
| Keyshawn Mitchell | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2.8 |
| Jordan Tillery | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +0.9 |
| Jordann Dumont | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +5.8 |
* = starter