Model Predictions
| Model | Texas Tech Red Raiders | UCF Knights | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 58.7% | 41.3% | -4.3 | ✗ (12.3 off) |
| Bradley-Terry | 54.3% | 45.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 74.2% | 25.8% | -5.8 | ✗ (13.8 off) |
| Pythagorean | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 71.9% | 28.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 79.2% | 20.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 79.5% | 20.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: UCF Knights +8 (88-80). Ratings: 2025-26 season-end ratings.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Anderson * | 40 | 5-10 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 14 | -9.2 |
| JT Toppin * | 37 | 12-17 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 20 | -7.6 |
| Donovan Atwell * | 37 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 8 | +0.6 |
| Jaylen Petty * | 29 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -15.4 |
| LeJuan Watts * | 23 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 1 | -12.1 |
| Josiah Moseley | 17 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -6.0 |
| Tyeree Bryan | 14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1.6 |
| Luke Bamgboye | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -0.9 |
UCF Knights
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Burks * | 36 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 15 | +8.4 |
| Jamichael Stillwell * | 35 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 | +16.1 |
| Themus Fulks * | 34 | 9-23 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 5 | +20.7 |
| Riley Kugel * | 29 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 4-5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +22.4 |
| John Bol * | 29 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 17 | +13.8 |
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +1.3 |
| Carmelo Pacheco | 15 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | +5.1 |
| Dev. Cambridge | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +2.0 |
* = starter