Model Predictions
| Model | UTSA Roadrunners | Texas State Bobcats | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 11.2% | 88.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 14.4% | 85.6% | +9.8 | ✓ (1.2 off) |
| Pythagorean | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Texas State Bobcats +11 (80-69). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Hayes * | 33 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | -8.4 |
| Jamir Simpson * | 32 | 6-14 | 4-8 | 6-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 11 | -4.1 |
| Kaidon Rayfield * | 27 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 4-9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 16 | +4.0 |
| Austin Nunez * | 15 | 0-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4 | -9.8 |
| Matheo Coffi * | 10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -11.6 |
| Baboucarr Njie | 34 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 6 | +3.9 |
| Brent Moss | 22 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | +1.8 |
| Macaleab Rich | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -4.3 |
| Pierce Spencer | 10 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Stanley Borden | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.7 |
Texas State Bobcats
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden Gumbs * | 36 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | +9.8 |
| Franck Emmou * | 30 | 4-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | -1.2 |
| DJ Hall * | 26 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 19 | +11.9 |
| Makai Willis * | 19 | 5-11 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | -4.9 |
| Mark Drone * | 15 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | +1.0 |
| Dimp Pernell | 33 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 4-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 12 | +7.6 |
| Robert Fields | 20 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | +1.3 |
| Jalen Bolden | 8 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1.0 |
| Jaelyn Lee | 7 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +0.0 |
| T. Sant | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - |
* = starter