Model Predictions
| Model | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos | Sacramento State Hornets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.7% | 26.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 78.2% | 21.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 69.5% | 30.5% | -4.5 | ✓ (0.5 off) |
| Pythagorean | 72.2% | 27.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Sacramento State Hornets -5 (87-92). Predictions use season-end ratings.
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Little * | 35 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 10-10 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 25 | +0.9 |
| Aidan Mahaney * | 33 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 3-5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 8 | -16.2 |
| Colin Smith * | 30 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 19 | +5.5 |
| Jason Fontenet II * | 28 | 6-13 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | -6.0 |
| Hosana Kitenge * | 21 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | +1.2 |
| Zion Sensley | 15 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -4.0 |
| Michael Simcoe | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1.0 |
| CJ Shaw | 12 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | -4.4 |
| Evans Kipruto | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3.7 |
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikey Williams * | 39 | 10-16 | 4-7 | 6-8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 19 | +3.3 |
| Jeremiah Cherry * | 38 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 4-8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 18 | +9.2 |
| Prophet Johnson * | 37 | 7-11 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 25 | +13.8 |
| Jahni Summers * | 27 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +0.2 |
| Shaqir O'Neal * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5.9 |
| Jayden Teat | 18 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +0.9 |
| Mark Lavrenov | 12 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | +5.8 |
| Brandon Gardner | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5.1 |
| Romari Robinson | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.2 |
* = starter