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2025-11-08

Model Predictions

Model Arkansas Razorbacks Michigan State Spartans Spread Result
Elo 45.7% 54.3% -
Bradley-Terry 35.1% 64.9% -
Margin 31.0% 69.0% +4.4 (1.4 off)
Pythagorean 45.0% 55.0% -
Efficiency 79.0% 21.0% -
Adjusted Efficiency 31.7% 68.3% -
Log Adjusted 31.5% 68.5% -
Points Off/Def 39.7% 60.3% -

Actual: Michigan State Spartans +3 (69-66). Predictions use season-end ratings.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
D. Acuff Jr. * 33 5-16 2-8 4-7 2 6 2 0 1 16 9 -10.3
D.J. Wagner * 31 4-6 2-4 3-4 2 3 3 0 1 13 14 -7.6
B. Richmond III * 29 3-8 1-4 1-2 6 0 0 1 2 8 5 -6.2
N. Pringle * 28 2-2 0-0 2-4 7 1 2 3 1 6 16 -4.5
T. Brazile * 16 1-5 0-2 1-2 2 0 1 1 2 3 0 -7.0
M. Thomas 29 5-15 2-9 4-4 6 2 1 0 2 16 8 -1.6
K. Knox 18 0-1 0-1 0-0 4 4 1 0 4 0 4 -8.0
M. Ewin 15 2-3 0-0 0-0 2 0 1 1 1 4 4 -4.9
I. Sealy 1 0-0 0-0 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +0.2

Michigan State Spartans

Player MIN FG 3PT FT REB AST STL BLK TO PTS Numbers RAPM GS
J. Fears Jr. * 35 0-7 0-2 4-6 3 9 1 0 3 4 7 +13.3
J. Kohler * 31 5-13 0-3 0-0 7 3 1 0 3 10 5 +7.5
C. Carr * 31 4-7 0-1 7-8 7 3 1 0 2 15 17 +9.1
C. Cooper * 20 3-5 0-0 3-4 2 2 1 2 0 9 11 +10.3
T. Fort * 15 2-6 1-4 0-0 2 0 1 1 2 5 1 +4.8
J. Scott 26 2-4 0-1 2-4 7 0 0 1 0 6 10 +5.8
C. Ward 23 8-13 0-1 2-4 10 0 2 0 2 18 15 +4.0
D. Ugochukwu 11 0-2 0-0 0-0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -1 +0.4
K. Teng 5 0-2 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 +0.3
J. McCulloch 3 1-2 0-1 0-0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 +0.4

* = starter